It was a disappointing Friday in the MLB player prop streets as we went 0-2 to run our weekly record to 6-5. Our Matthew Liberatore wager was dead before the game was even 30 minutes old, while our Max Fried bet didn’t fare much better.
We’re sticking to pitcher props today, as we can’t possibly pass on an opportunity to back reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, given his recent form. We’ll also be betting against Rockies hurler Antonio Senzatela, who continues to be the gift that keeps on giving for MLB betting.
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MLB Player Prop Picks for May 31
Tarik Skubal 7+ Strikeouts (+132 at FanDuel)
Back to Skubal, who we’re betting to rack up at least 7 strikeouts against the Royals. Full disclosure, you could alternatively wager on 6+ strikeouts for Skubal at -162, but why pay all that unnecessary juice, given the consistency at which the Tigers ace is striking out hitters.
Skubal is fresh off a masterclass performance against the Guardians. He threw a complete game, 2-hit shutout, mowing down 13 Cleveland batters in the process. It marked the sixth straight game in which he’s struck out at least eight hitters, and the third time in four starts he’s produced double-digit K’s.
Skubal enters play third in all of MLB in strikeouts, with an impressive 12.1 K/9 rate, the highest mark of his MLB tenure. The numbers suggest he isn’t likely to slow down anytime soon, and like a fine wine, he’s actually getting better with age.
Skubal’s velocity is up this season over his Cy Young campaign, across all five pitches. He’s yielding hard contact at just a 28% clip, while forcing more swings and misses than ever before.
Skubal’s 18.3% swinging strike rate is 4 percent better than last year, leading to a career high 33.9% called strike + swinging strike mark, one of the best in baseball.
In terms of his history against the KC lineup, as Larry David would say, “it’s pretty, pretty, pretty good”. Skubal has limited the Royals to a .258 average over 132 at-bats with a 32% strikeout rate.
Antonio Senzatela Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-155 at DraftKings)
Every so often, a pitcher comes along that opposing teams just can’t wait to face. Senzatela isthat guy. It’s hard to imagine he’d be a starter on any other team in baseball, but Colorado is so desperate for innings eaters that they trot him out to the mound every fifth day, regardless of how poorly he’s performing.
Senzatela enters play on Saturday fresh off another terrible performance. He coughed up 6 hits and 4 runs to the Yankees, marking the sixth straight outing he’s allowed at least that many runs. Dating back a few more starts, he’s now yielded 4+ runs in eight of nine starts, and owns an 8.03 ERA over the last 30 days.
Enemy hitters are batting .364 against him during that stretch, smacking 40 hits and crossing the plate 26 times in just 24.2 innings of work. He’s surrendering hard contact at a 46% clip while only generating swings and misses on 7% of his pitches.
That spells trouble against a loaded Mets lineup that’s had its way with the right-hander in the past. Current New York batters are slashing .353/.380/.647 against him over a 68 at-bat sample size, with 6 home runs. No hitter has done more damage than Starling Marte (7-for-13), so consider targeting him as well in the batters props market if he’s slotted into the starting lineup.
