Another 1-2 MLB Player Props card on Friday leaves us with a 4-5 record heading into Saturday’s slate. We’ve got 15 games to sweat starting this afternoon, with our favorite target coming from an NL East clash between the Mets and Phillies.
Philadelphia hurler Mick Abel is someone we’re looking to fade in the strikeouts market, as his recent form and metrics don’t align with an appealing K ceiling.
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MLB Player Prop Picks for June 21
Mick Abel Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)
Abel boasts a strikeout prop of 4.5 today against New York, a line he’s failed to clear in three of his first four starts this season. The rookie’s K/9 rate has plummeted over his past three outings, as he’s averaging a hair over 0.5 strikeouts per inning.
Abel’s swing and miss rate is down 2% from his minor league numbers, while his hard hit rate allowed is up over 50%. As for the matchup, it also doesn’t lend itself to a high strikeout total. The Mets whiff at a bottom-10 rate in MLB, and boast significantly better OPS numbers versus righties like Abel than lefties.
Grant Holmes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
We’re fading Abel in the K market, but we’re buying Atlanta’s Grant Holmes. The 29-year-old has been an elite strikeout producer this season, and the matchup versus the Marlins is one of the most favorable he could have asked for.
Holmes enters play fresh off a 15 K performance and has racked up 9+ strikeouts in three of his past four outings. His 10.44 K/9 rate is the highest mark of his MLB career, and he enters play forcing swings and misses at a 13% clip.
Miami, meanwhile, is about as free-swinging a lineup as there is. Only a handful of teams draw fewer walks, and they’ve struggled badly against Holmes in the past. Holmes has struck out the current Marlin hitters at a near 50% rate, setting himself up for another big K performance today.
Lourdes Gurriel Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140 at Bet365)
Last, but not least, we’re also targeting over 1.5 total bases for Arizona’s Lourdes Gurriel atCoors Field. Gurriel will square off against Carson Palmquist and the Rockies, and the lefty has been a punching bag for enemy lineups all season.
Palmquist has yielded 10 runs and 5 homers over his past 13 innings. He’s yielded an enemy slash line of .298/.391/.587, and a hard hit rate of 40%.
Gurriel is fresh off a 3-hit outing in last night’s 14-8 victory, giving him multi-hit efforts in two of his last three games. He’s crushed lefties like Palmquist all year, posting a .303/.346/.461 slashline, and an OPS that’s .92 points higher than versus right-handers.
