12-1. That’s our record this week betting MLB player props after another perfect card on Friday.
Saturday is going to be a great day. Why? Because the Reds once again get to play ball at Coors Field, aka baseball’s most hitter-friendly park.
As if that wasn’t enough, online sportsbooks refuse to acknowledge Gavin Lux’s talent. We’ve been riding Lux all week in the player props market, and he refuses to let us down. We’re going back to the well today after his night off on Friday, and the matchup couldn’t be better.
MLB Player Prop Picks for April 26
Gavin Lux Over 1.5 Total Bases (-135 at FanDuel)
Over the last seven days, Lux is slashing .412/.565/.647. He’s one of baseball’s hottest hitters, and trails reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani by just .11 points in OPS. Lux has homered, scored five times, and driven in five runs over the last week, clearing his 1.5 total bases prop line in four of six outings. He’s riding an eight-game hitting streak and absolutely owns Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela.
Lux is 8-for-20 all-time against the Colorado righty. Senzatela has been one of our favorite punching bags to bet against over the past couple of seasons, and 2025 is no exception. He’s surrendered 42 hits and 15 runs in only 24 innings so far. Let that sink in. That’s over half a run per inning, and nearly two hits per frame.
Senzatela has been especially bad at home, getting lit up by enemy batters. He’s got a 7.84 ERA at Coors Field this season, after posting a 9.82 ERA in his own park in 2024. Run, don’t walk to the window to bet on Lux today.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Bases (-105 at DraftKings)
Sometimes a hitter just sees the ball more clearly coming out of certain pitcher’s hands. That appears to be the case when Freddie Freeman is at the dish versus Mitch Keller, as he’s tormented the Pirates righty over the course of his career.
Freeman 8-for-15 lifetime against Keller, with a .533/.588/.800 slash line. He’s homered and driven in three runs, and has absolutely mashed at Dodger Stadium this season, where Pittsburgh and LA will play tonight.
Freeman is batting .356 at home in 2025, with a 1.156 OPS. His overall.327 ISO is the highest mark of his career, and he’s making hard contact in 45.2% of his at-bats, his best rate since 2022.
As for Keller, he enters Saturday having allowed at least one home run in back-to-back starts, and 5+ hits in all but one of his five outings so far. He’s 1-2 all-time at Dodger Stadium, with an 8.36 ERA.
