A split on Thursday’s MLB player props card runs our weekly record to 6-3. After yesterday’s minuscule six-game slate, we’re back to a full menu of contests tonight featuring all 30 teams in action.
Our first target comes from the Cardinals-Rangers game, where we’re looking to ride the impeccable form of Matthew Liberatore, while fading an underwhelming Texas lineup.
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MLB Player Prop Picks for May 30
Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-115 at DraftKings)
Liberatore enters play tonight as one of the most consistent starters in baseball this season. He’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in eight straight outings, and is fresh off back-to-back 1-run performances. Liberatore owns a sparkling 2.22 ERA over the last month, holding enemy batters to a .221 batting average.
The southpaw is limiting opponents to a 32% hard contact rate, while his 29.8% called +swinging strike rate is the highest mark of his career. Liberatore also sports a tiny 1.01 WHIP, which is a testament to his control. His 3.4% walk rate is the lowest mark of his MLB tenure, and one of the best base on ball rates for any pitcher.
As for the matchup, this version of the Rangers isn’t scaring anyone. Texas is the third-lowest-scoring team in baseball, ahead of only the dreadful Pirates and Rockies. They’re also in the bottom five in slugging and OBP, while no MLB squad has a worse OPS.
Over the last two weeks, the Rangers are slashing .180/.247/.290, and they’ll be hard pressed to score more than twice versus an in-form Liberatore.
Max Fried Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155 at DraftKings)
We’re sticking with pitchers for our next prop, targeting a big strikeout performance for the Yankees Max Fried versus the Dodgers. Yes, the matchup is imposing, but it’s tough to find a pitcher who’s performing on the same level as Fried these days.
The lefty enters play tonight with a 7-0 record and a league-best 1.29 ERA. His 0.93 WHIP is the ninth-best mark in baseball, while he also ranks top 21 in strikeouts.
We’re betting over 4.5 K’s tonight for Fried, willing to swallow a little bit of extra juice in the process. He’s cleared that line in six straight starts, limiting opponent batters to a .191/.250/.273slash line. Fried is surrendering hard contact at just a 26.3% clip and has an excellent track record against the current LA lineup.
The 31-year-old has held current Dodgers batters to a .203/.266/.364 slash line over 187 at-bats, with a 29% strikeout rate. Michael Conforto and Freddie Freeman have each whiffed in 50% of their career at-bats versus Fried, while Mookie Betts has fanned 9 times in 30 at-bats, with only 2 hits.
Given the strikeout prowess Fried has shown recently, laddering his K props is certainly an option. He’s +135 to record 6 strikeouts and +270 to fan 7+ batters, a feat he’s accomplished in three of his past four outings.
