Another split on Wednesday’s MLB player props card left our weekly record at 3-3. Thursday brings an abbreviated 13-game slate for us target, but there’s still plenty of value to be found in the props menu.
Our first pick comes from the Orioles-Mariners game, where Cal Raleigh looks to continue to terrorize enemy pitchers. The 28-year-old is the MLB leader in home runs, and is one of baseball’s hottest hitters over the last two weeks.
MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-125 at DraftKings)
Raleigh and the M’s will face Baltimore hurler Zach Eflin this afternoon, who’s been lit up in two of his previous three outings. Eflin has coughed up 19 hits, 13 runs and seven homers over his past 17 innings, and is allowing hard contact at a 40% clip.
That’s music to Raleigh’s ears, who’s on pace to obliterate his career-highs in home runs, RBI, hits and runs scored. He’s cleared 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in five of his last seven games, and is a lifetime .333 hitter versus Eflin.
Raleigh enters play slashing .340/.431/.860 over the last two weeks, with 17 hits, eight home runs, 14 RBI and nine runs scored.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Willy Adames Under 0.5 Hits (-105 at DraftKings)
We go from one of MLB’s hottest hitters to one if its coldest with our next selection, targeting under 0.5 hits for the Giants Willy Adames. The 29-year-old is in the midst of a brutal funk, failing to record a hit in three straight outings, and in seven of his past 10 games overall.
Adames is slashing .136/.255/.182 over the last 15 days, and his line drive rate is a career-worst 19.2%. His .115 ISO is nearly 100 points lower than a season ago, while he’s fanning on 26% of his at-bats.
Life won’t get any easier today for Adames, as he’s facing San Diego’s Dylan Cease, a pitcher he’s had little success against. Adams is 2-for-9 lifetime versus Cease, with 5 strikeouts.
MLB Player Prop Pick #3: Framber Valdez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150 at DraftKings)
Last but not least, we’re taking over 5.5 strikeouts for Houston’s Framber Valdez versus the Pirates. The juice is a little high at -150, so if you want to swing for a better payout, you could target 7+ K’s at +125 odds.
Valdez enters play ranked top-22 in strikeouts for the season, clearing 5.5 strikeouts five of his past six starts, reaching 7+ K’s four times. His strikeout percentage and K per 9 rate is right inline with his career averages, while he’s producing an above average called + swinging strike rate of 29%.
The main reason to love this prop is the matchup. The free swinging Pirates whiff at one of the highest rates in baseball, striking out nine times per game on average. Pittsburgh’s current lineup has also struggled badly against Valdez in the past, posting a .200/.262/.267 slash line over 60 at-bats, with a 25% strikeout rate.
