Monday marks the start of a new week for our MLB player props, and we’ve identified a pair of targets on today’s nine-game slate. Our first pick comes from the Mariners-Twins contest, where Seattle is in a great spot to continue its torrid stretch of offense.
MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Crawford Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-120 at DraftKings)
This pick is because the Mariners will face Bailey Ober, who’s in a miserable stretch of form. Ober enters play with an 8.31 ERA over three starts this month, surrendering 20 hits, 16 runs and seven homers in only 17 innings of work.
Ober’s underlying metrics suggest his struggles will continue for the foreseeable future. His velocity is down across his three primary pitches, while his swinging strike rate is the lowest it’s been since his rookie campaign. Ober’s hard hit allowed rate is over 40%, while his 17.8% strikeout rate is the lowest mark of his career.
He’s struggled mightily against Seattle’s J.P. Crawford in the past, yielding .364 average to the 30-year-old. Crawford is white-hot this month, much like the rest of his teammates, posting a .357/.464/.457 slash line, with 25 hits in 70 at-bats.
He’s cleared over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in three of his past four games, and is a great bet to do so again tonight. Check out MLB betting bonuses on DraftKings for this matchup, such as parlay boosts.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Arraez Over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-135 at Bet365)
Next up, we’re also betting over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI for San Diego’s Luis Arraez against the Nationals. Arraez enters play riding a 9-game hitting streak and has an incredible history against Washington starter Mitchell Parker.
Arraez is 4-for-6 all-time versus Parker with 2 RBI. He’s cleared this prop line seven times in his last nine outings and is due for some positive regression. Arraez has just a .275 average on balls in play, down nearly .60 points from his career average. Water will likely find its level soon, meaning he’ll be on base even more.
As for Parker, he’s allowed 21 hits and 12 runs in four starts this month and has an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of May. He doesn’t have a ton of history against this Padres lineup, but when he has faced them, it has not gone well. Parker has yielded a .429/.455/.476 slash line to San Diego batters and owns a 5.93 ERA away from home.
