Betting unders is a hard sell for most people. You have to actively root against something from happening, usually offense. Sportsbooks know this, and typically post less favorable lines on overs, knowing the majority of bettors will fire at them anyway.
You can take advantage of this, going the other way. The beauty of betting an under is that you have multiple outs for the wager to cash. A player can simply not live up to expectations, or he can leave early due to a substitution or injury.
MLB Player Props Picks for April 19
Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (+115 at DraftKings)
We have a prime example of this in the Cubs vs Diamondbacks contest this afternoon. These teams have met five times already this season, producing an average of 12+ runs per game. Casual bettors are going to be pounding overs in this matchup, which gives us a chance to target some plus-money unders.
The best of the bunch is under 0.5 hits for Chicago’s Dansby Swanson. This wager is full of value for two reasons. One, Swanson is underperforming despite being on baseball’s highest-scoring team. Two, he has a dreadful history against Arizona ace Zac Gallen, whom he’ll face today.
Swanson is 1-for-11 lifetime versus Gallen, with three strikeouts. He enters play batting .131 this month, and is in the midst of a 3-for-35 stretch. Swanson has gone hitless nine times already in April, striking out at a 33% rate.
Luis Severino Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)
The plus-money wager train continues with our next pick of under 4.5 strikeouts for Luis Severino. Bettors are going to be lining up to wager against the free-swinging Brewers in this spot, but Severino is not the K producer he once was.
The 31-year-old’s fastball velocity is down this season, while he’s not generating enough swings and misses to justify betting the over. Severino’s swinging strike rate is at a career low of 7.4% in 2024, after declining in three of the previous four seasons.
While his swings and misses are down, his hard-hit rate is way up. Opposing batters are making hard contact on 47.3% of their at-bats against Severino this season, a 12% increase over last year.
To make matters worse, the righty is struggling with his command. He’s already issued 11 walks in four starts, along with 4 home runs. Enemy hitters are slugging .419 against him, while Milwaukee’s lineup is top-six in MLB in scoring, producing nearly 5 runs per game.
If you’re looking for a Brewer to target versus Severino, consider Brice Turang. He’s 5-for-9 all-time against Severino, with a pair of extra-base hits. Turang has hits in 14 of 16 games so far in April, slashing .323/.362/.431 during that stretch. You can get him at +130 to record 2+ bases, and +1400 to smack a home run.
