We have plenty of matchups to consider for our MLB betting picks, including a fun Sunday Night Baseball game between the Tigers and the Rangers, with Tarik Skubal on the mound.
There are hot temperatures making its way across the East Coast, which means overs are in play for today, but our first pick of the day is backing a stud pitcher. Below, we go over some of the best MLB bets to make on Sunday, July 20th.
Sunday’s Best MLB Betting Picks & Odds
Skubal Mows Down Rangers
It should not take a ton of convincing to back Skubal, who is likely to win his second Cy Young award in a row this year. While he has slightly struggled in the strikeout department recently, only going over in 3 of his last 8 games, that comes after going over in six straight. That is the typical highs and lows of an MLB season, which, even more recently, Skubal missed this in his last start with only five strikeouts but had gone over three games in a row prior to that.
After struggling in that last start, the expectation is Skubal bounces back post All-Star Break in this game tonight, facing off against a Rangers team that really struggles against left-handed pitching.
On the year, the Rangers have the ninth-highest K rate in the MLB against LHP, and the third-worst wRC+. Eight of their nine batters in their projected starting lineup tonight have a strikeout rate above 20% against lefties, with four of them being at 26% or higher.
On a related note, Skubal last faced these Rangers in May and struck out 12 batters. Let’s hope he can get to eight tonight. Check out MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel before making wagers on this matchup.
Expect Runs in Atlanta
This is another play that does not require a ton of convincing, asking people to expect runs to be scored in a Yankees game. The Yankees are the perfect combination for overs in that they have fantastic hitters and a poor pitching staff. For reference, the Yankees have played 14 games in July, and only two of them have had nine or fewer runs. That includes this series against the Braves, where both games went over this total.
The two starting pitchers only help this argument, with Marcus Stroman on the mound for the Yankees and Grant Holmes for the Braves. Stroman spent most of the season injured, when he missed 8+ weeks from mid-April to the end of June, but when he has pitched, he has not performed well, with a 6.66 ERA, 5.62 xERA, 5.60 FIP and 5.26 SIERA.
Holmes has not been a bad as Stroman, but he really struggles against lefty bats, and the Yankees have a bunch of hard-hitting lefties to throw at him.
This is also a great weather game to expect home runs, with a +19% home run index. So, runs should come in bunches in this one.
Hot Weather Leads to Scoring in Philly
This is another game worthy of taking the over, but in this case we are not fading the starting pitching as much as the Yankees/Braves game, more-so backing two great hitting teams in a great weather situation.
The Phillies have Ranger Suarez on the mound, who has been nothing short of fantastic since he came back from injury, but the Phillies bullpen is not trustworthy and the Angels are among the best hitting teams in the MLB. So, even if Suarez pitches a gem, the Angels could still put up 4-5 runs in the late innings alone.
As far as the weather is concerned, this is the best home run venue of the day with a +39% home run index, which is because of the hot temperatures in the low 90s, double-digit winds blowing out to right field, and low barometric pressure, which all lead to intense carry on any baseball hit in the air.
The Phillies offense is very hit-or-miss, but they are mostly a hit when playing in the comforts of their home stadium. They have the fourth-best home wRC+ in the MLB on the year, and the second-best since the month of June. Both games in this series so far have gone over this number, with both teams scoring at least five runs in both games so far.
So, even without the ideal starting pitching for an over, still expect these teams to put runs across board before the last out.
