The MLB betting slate features 16 teams on the mound, as roughly half the league has the day off with today being a travel day. There is a big series between the Padres and the Phillies, a rematch of the 2022 NLCS, with a possible pitching battle going on in Boston between the Reds and the Red Sox. Reds young prospect Chase Burns is on the mound, going up against Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet.
So, even with a lighter slate, there are still a lot of fun matchups to dive into. Please check out the best MLB betting picks today, June 30th.
Monday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Use the MLB betting bonuses on Caesars, FanDuel and bet365
- Chase Burns o5.5 Strikeouts (-133) Caesars
- Cardinals Moneyline (-106) FanDuel
- Phillies Team Total o5.5 (+125) bet365
Burns Impresses in Second Start
Burns has only made one start in his major league career, but that one start was pretty electric. Of course, he is a highly touted prospect (11th-ranked prospect according in the MLB), so it was not a total surprise that he pitched well. In that start, he struck out eight batters, giving him an electric K/9 of 14.40 and a strikeout rate of 38.1%. He had a strikeout rate above 30% in AAA this year, so it was known that he had elite strikeout stuff.
That start in which he struck out eight batters was against the Yankees, who do strikeout a decent amount, but not as much as the Red Sox. Since 5/1, the Red Sox have the third-worst strikeout rate against RHP in the entire MLB, and that number has gone up over the last 30 days. They are one of only three teams with a strikeout rate above 25% since 6/1 against righties.
The Rex Sox have not been able to hit in general recently, with the third-worst wRC+ against RHP in this same stretch of games. So, the expectation here is that Burns is able to have success against the Red Sox, which hopefully includes at least six strikeouts.
Cardinals Get it Done in Pittsburgh
The Pirates are a team that is ripe to fade after an impressive series against the Mets. Not only did they sweep the Mets in that three-game series, but they managed a combined 30 runs as well. The Mets had been reeling prior to that, and this represents an excellent sell high on the Pirates after that success.
Taking a step back, the Pirates are among the worst teams in baseball, and a three game hot streak does not suddenly change that. For reference, they had scored a combined five runs in the two games prior to that, before exploding for 30 in their last three. Overall, the Pirates bats have the third-worst wRC+ in the MLB on the entire season, and the second-worst since 5/1.
This also represents a buy low opportunity on Erick Fedde, the Cardinals starting pitcher. He got rocked in his last start, allowing seven earned runs to the Cubs in only 3.2 innings pitched. That is obviously not great, however he had been good in his previous nine starts heading into that last start. He had a 2.81 ERA and 3.59 FIP in those nine starts, so this game in general represents a great opportunity to fade an over-achieving Pirates team while also buying low on the Cardinals side.
Expect Runs in Philly
Backing the Phillies definitely feels a little scary, as their bats have been ice cold in five out of their last six games. They scored a combined four runs in those five games, getting blanked in two of them. While there is no argument other than that is very bad, they did face four elite starting pitchers in that stretch. They did, however, face a below-average pitcher in one of those games, and they happened to score 13 runs in that game, with an absurd 11 in the first three innings.
The Phillies bats are known to be streaky, so the hope is that they manage to explode again today in a positive situation. Matt Waldron is pitching for the Padres, who is admittedly somewhat of an unknown as a knuckle-ball pitcher. That said, Waldron struggled in his last 10 starts of the 2024 season and has not been good in the minor league this year. To confirm, he has not made a start in the majors yet this year.
Last year, in those last 10 starts referenced earlier, he had a 7.22 ERA, with below-average numbers across the board. He has not fared much better in the minors this year, with a 5.24 ERA and 4.85 xFIP in AAA. This is also a great weather game for runs in general, so the expectation here is that the Phillies manage to put some runs on the board.
