Sitting comfortably atop the Premier League table, Liverpool host top-four challengers Newcastle United at Anfield on Wednesday in a preview of next month’s Carabao Cup final.
The Reds hold an 11-point lead, so even the knowledge that they’ve played an extra game on the field won’t make Liverpool fans sweat in this title race.
Newcastle, meanwhile, are in the midst of a feverish battle for UEFA Champions League qualification. Given that the Premier League is likely to earn a fifth spot this year, they “just” have to maintain their place in the standings, which will prove difficult given that four teams below them are within two points.
With this 90 minutes as an appetizer, these two teams will meet again on March 16 at Wembley in the first cup final of the 2024/25 season.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United prediction, odds
Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and longshot fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2024, he has correctly predicted 55.1% of 396 match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans for a total profit of 34.3 units.
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+400 on DraftKings)
- Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle
- Best bet: Newcastle double chance (+155 on DraftKings)
Newcastle may not always look a formidable side, but a lack of consistency has been their biggest downfall, not their talent or incisiveness. Especially against the top Premier League teams, the Magpies have looked impressive at various points through this season.
Indeed, of their eight league defeats in 2024/25, five of them have come against the likes of Fulham (twice), Brentford, West Ham, and Brighton & Hove Albion. Yet against the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Manchester United and Tottenham, they have lost just twice in 10 games.
Newcastle always get up for games like this, and what better time to get a result, or even their first win over Liverpool, than against a Reds side who are comfortable in their title-leading position? The absence of Alexander Isak is a massive blow, but Liverpool are also still unable to include Cody Gakpo in the lineup, so both sides are less than fully fit up front. The market has swung too far in favor of the hosts, and there’s an opportunity here to capitalize on the disparity.
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| Liverpool win | -240 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Newcastle win | +600 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -155 N: +125 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: +110 U: -150 |
| Liverpool -1.5 goals |
+100 |
| Newcastle +1.5 goals |
-140 |
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United match facts
- Date: Wednesday, February 26, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8:15 p.m. local (3:15 p.m. ET / 12:15 p.m. PT)
- Location: Anfield Stadium (Liverpool, England)
- Referee: Chris Kavanagh, VAR: Matt Donohue
- Last meeting: Newcastle 3-3 Liverpool (Dec. 4, 2024 | Premier League)
MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Liverpool vs. Newcastle United
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United best bet
Preferring to play on the counter, especially against more dominant clubs, Newcastle are by no means shot merchants. Yet when they find the space to shoot, they usually make it happen, relying on efficiency over volume.
Newcastle have taken 355 shots this season, 10th-best in the Premier League. They haven’t exactly been precise with those efforts either, as their 34% shot-on-target rate ranks fourth-worst in the league.
Where the Magpies excel is in capitalizing on the best opportunities. Newcastle’s 38% rate of converting shots on target into goals is second-best in the EPL behind only Arsenal. All they need are a few chances to strike, and they know it. After putting up six shots on target at home against Liverpool in the recent 3-3 draw, there’s plenty of reason to believe they will reach 2/3 of that total on the road.
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United prop bet
- Pick: Under 3.0 total goals
- Odds: +100 (DraftKings)
With Newcastle missing Alexander Isak and Liverpool unable to bring Cody Gakpo back into the starting lineup, both teams are at an attacking disadvantage.
Obviously the miss of Isak is a problem for Newcastle, but on the other side, Diogo Jota has not been prolific since his return from injury last month. Newcastle have not kept a clean sheet in league play since a 3-0 win over Wolves, but they have good players in the lineup along the back, and both Martin Dubravka and Nick Pope are strong goalkeeping options.
These two teams do occasionally play lower scoring matches, and this seems like a good time for one to happen given the absences.
This selection was previously Alexander Isak anytime goal scorer (+145) but the 25-year-old was not included in the Newcastle squad for the match due to a groin injury.
