The NFC North matchup in Green Bay is one of the most intriguing games in Week 1. Our Lions-Packers betting preview includes odds, sportsbook bonuses and picks.
- A classic NFC North rivalry kicks off the season as the ascending Green Bay Packers host the reigning division champion Detroit Lions.
- The Packers are slight home favorites, but the Lions have dominated this matchup recently, winning six of the last seven meetings straight up.
- We break down the key matchups, analyze player props, and provide our best bets for this highly anticipated season opener.
The NFC North title could very well be decided by the battles between the Lions and Packers, and we get a marquee matchup right out of the gate in Week 1. The rivalry enters a new era with both teams boasting legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, centered around two of the conference’s premier quarterbacks. Jordan Love takes the field for the Packers after a breakout 2024 campaign where he proved he’s the franchise’s future, completing 64.2% of his passes for 4,159 yards and a sterling 32-11 TD-to-INT ratio.
Across the field, Jared Goff leads a Lions offense that was the NFL’s highest-scoring unit last season. Goff was surgical in his efficiency, posting a 72.4% completion rate while throwing for 4,474 yards and 39 touchdowns. While the Packers made one of the biggest offseason splashes by acquiring elite pass rusher Micah Parsons, the Lions have had Green Bay’s number, winning four of the last five matchups. This game will be a crucial early test of Green Bay’s revamped defense against Detroit’s offensive juggernaut.
This comprehensive betting preview will dissect the odds, include NFL betting bonuses, dive into critical on-field matchups, and highlight the most valuable player props to help you make your wagers. We’ll cap it off with our official prediction and top picks for this NFC North showdown.
The Lions and Packers will renew their rivalry at the historic Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. Kickoff is scheduled for Sunday, September 7, 2025, at 4:25 pm ET, with CBS handling the national broadcast. The weather forecast calls for a mild early September afternoon with minimal wind, creating ideal conditions for both high-powered passing attacks.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-118) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total Points | Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110) |
Odds from BetMGM.
Based on the moneyline odds, the books are giving the Packers a slight edge at home. The -130 odds for Green Bay imply a 56.5% chance of winning, while the Lions’ +110 odds translate to a 47.6% probability.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting line for this NFL clash has seen notable movement since opening. The Packers opened as -1.5 point favorites, and that line has been bet up to -2.5, indicating that early money, possibly from the public, is backing the home team. This move is likely influenced by the buzz surrounding Green Bay’s offseason additions and the formidable home-field advantage at Lambeau.
Conversely, the total has dropped significantly from an opening of 49.5 down to 47.5. This two-point dip suggests that sharp bettors may be anticipating the Packers’ improved defense to have an immediate impact, or perhaps they’re fading the public’s expectation of a Week 1 shootout.
The most significant value may now lie with the Lions. Despite their recent dominance in this series (6-1 SU in the last seven), they are getting points. The Lions have been an exceptional bet as underdogs, covering the spread in 10 of their last 11 games in that role.
The line moving further in Green Bay’s favor only enhances the value for bettors who believe in Detroit’s offensive consistency and their proven ability to win this head-to-head matchup.
Key Matchups to Watch
Keep these matchups in mind when making your player props. Use the BetMGM bonus code TSN150 to score a $150 bonus for your picks.
Quarterback vs Pass Defense
Love is poised to attack a Lions secondary that ranked 30th against the pass last season, allowing over 244 yards per game. While the Lions made offseason additions, this remains their biggest question mark. Love, who averaged 244.6 passing yards per game in 2023 with a 96.1 rating, should find opportunities to exploit matchups, especially if Christian Watson is healthy.
On the other side, Goff orchestrates an elite passing attack (263.2 yards/game) but will face a Packers defense that was a respectable 13th against the pass and now adds a generational talent in Micah Parsons (if he is able to play in Week 1). If the Packers’ pass rush can get home, Goff’s performance could suffer.
Running Game vs Run Defense
This is a true strength-on-strength battle. The Detroit Lions feature a dynamic one-two punch with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, powering a rushing attack that averaged 146.4 yards per game last season. They’ll face a stout Packers run defense that ranked 7th in the NFL, surrendering just 99.4 yards per game.
The Packers’ new-look linebacker corps, featuring rookie Edgerrin Cooper, will be tested immediately by Detroit’s creative ground-and-pound scheme. The winner of this trench battle could control the clock and the tempo of the game.
Pass Catchers vs Secondary
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a target machine who will test the Packers’ slot coverage all day. The real X-factor is Jameson Williams, whose deep speed poses a massive threat to a Green Bay secondary that occasionally gave up explosive plays last year.
For the Packers, their young receiving corps of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and potentially Matthew Golden will have a significant advantage against a Lions secondary that lacks a true shutdown corner. Tight ends Sam LaPorta (DET) and Tucker Kraft (GB) are both red-zone mismatches who could have big days.
Offensive Line vs Pass Rush
The Lions boast a top-5 offensive line, but they will have their hands full with the Packers’ revamped defensive front. The addition of Parsons alongside Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark creates one of the most fearsome pass rushes in the league.
How Detroit handles stunts and protects an injured right tackle spot will be critical. On the other side, Aidan Hutchinson is a relentless force for the Lions. The Packers’ offensive line, which has solid pass-blocking metrics, must contain him to give Love the time he needs to pick apart the vulnerable Detroit secondary.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Passing Props
| Player | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | Completions | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love (GB) | 237.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 20.5 (O -105 | U -128) | 0.5 (O +105 | U -139) |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 235.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 21.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 0.5 (O -105 | U -128) |
Love’s passing yards prop of 237.5 looks very appealing. He averaged over 244 yards per game last season and is facing a defense that was one of the league’s worst against the pass. With a full complement of weapons, he should comfortably exceed this number.
Goff’s line is set slightly lower at 235.5, which is a nod to the Packers’ improved pass rush. If Parsons is active and disruptive, the under could be in play for Goff. You can make these prop bets with 20 profit boosts after using the Caesars Sportsbook promo code TSN20X.
Rushing & Receiving Props
| Player | Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 70.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 14.5 (O -118 | U -111) | 2.5 (O +150 | U -200) | Yes -173 | No +145 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 64.5 (O -118 | U -111) | 20.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 2.5 (O -200 | U +145) | Yes -123 | No +100 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | N/A | 65.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 6.5 (O +100 | U -133) | Yes +135 | No -165 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | N/A | 36.5 (O -115 | U -115) | N/A | Yes +237 | No -300 |
Gibbs’ receiving props are intriguing. The Packers’ linebackers will be tested in coverage, and the Lions love to scheme Gibbs into space. His receptions line is heavily juiced to the over at -200, but his receiving yards at 20.5 feels very attainable.
And Jacobs faces a tough Lions run defense that was 5th in the league last year, making the under a tempting play. St. Brown’s receiving line of 65.5 seems low for a player who is a target hog, but the Packers may dedicate extra attention to him, potentially opening things up for Williams.
Lions vs Packers Final Prediction
The Lions’ offense, which led the league in scoring last season, brings continuity and explosive playmakers at every level. While the Lambeau Field advantage is real, the trends in this rivalry are impossible to ignore. Detroit has not only won six of the last seven meetings but has been an absolute machine for bettors as an underdog, covering in 10 of their last 11 opportunities.
The key to this game lies in the trenches. Can Detroit’s elite offensive line, even with an injury at right tackle, neutralize a Packers pass rush featuring Parsons and Rashan Gary? If they give Goff time, he will dissect a Green Bay secondary that is still gelling.
On the flip side, Love has a prime matchup against a porous Lions pass defense. However, Aidan Hutchinson is a one-man wrecking crew who can disrupt an offense’s timing. The Lions have demonstrated a mental edge in this series, and their 8-1 ATS record in their last nine games as a short underdog (fewer than 7 points) is a powerful indicator of their ability to compete in and win tight games.
Ultimately, while the Packers have a higher ceiling defensively, the Lions have a higher floor offensively. In a Week 1 game where teams are still finding their rhythm, I’ll trust the unit with more proven chemistry. The Lions have the firepower to keep this game tight or win it outright. The recent history and Detroit’s incredible ATS trends as a road underdog are too strong to fade.
Picks & Prediction:
- ATS: Detroit Lions +2.5 (-118)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110)
- Player Prop: Jordan Love Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Same Game Parlay: Lions +2.5 & Over 47.5
Recent History of the NFC North Rivalry
The Lions have had a clear upper hand in this rivalry of late, winning six of the last seven contests. Their dominance includes a season sweep in 2023 and a split in 2024, with each team winning on the other’s home field. The games have often been high-scoring, with the over hitting in three of the last four meetings.
This trend suggests that even with defensive improvements, both offenses know how to attack the opposing scheme, leading to points on the board. The Lions’ recent success, particularly their 5-2 ATS record against the Packers in the last seven games, has flipped the traditional narrative of this NFC North rivalry.
