Not many people picked the Knicks to beat the Celtics, or the Pacers to beat the Cavs for that matter. Both teams pulled off convincing second-round upsets, and they are now set to meet in the Eastern Conference Finals where one of them will have to relinquish their perpetual underdog role.
These teams are no strangers to each other. This is the ninth time that they’ve met in the playoffs since 1993. The Pacers knocked out a decimated Knicks team by winning Game 7 in the second round last year. New York is healthier this year, and they’ve added Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. They will look for their revenge against a Pacers team that is the hottest in the league right now.
Here’s who has the edge, along with the pressure points for both teams.
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Knicks vs. Pacers prediction
If you think that NBA teams shoot too many 3’s, then this series is for you. The Pacers and Knicks ranked 21st and 28th in 3-point attempt rate during the regular season. The Pacers are good from everywhere on the floor. The Knicks pound teams at the rim. They’re both excellent at shotmaking, and that should make for a supremely entertaining series.
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The Knicks fell apart during last year’s second round due to the injuries up and down the roster. They’re a bit fresher this year, but Jalen Brunson is still nursing a bad right ankle. He and Tyrese Haliburton have taken turns being the most clutch player during the playoffs. The end of these games are going to be fun.
New York was impressive in dispatching the Pistons in six games in the first round. They essentially had a 3-1 series lead against the Celtics before Jayson Tatum’s injury late in Game 4 closed the door on any sort of comeback. Still, there’s a shadow of doubt about their ability to compete against the very best teams in the league. They were a disappointing 15-23 against teams above .500 during the regular season and dug out of at least 14-point deficits in the first three wins over the Celtics.
The Knicks have been playoff risers due to the incredible level of hustle that they put forth in every single game. Josh Hart is diving for loose balls all over the floor. O.G. Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are playing almost entire games, saving their best for last. And Brunson has been one of the game’s premier closers. What happens though when they play a team that has those same strengths?
Ultimately, I’m giving the edge to the Pacers. They weren’t a great team in the beginning of the season, due mostly to Haliburton’s nagging injuries. They’re clicking at the right time now. They finished the regular season off with a 40-17 record and have gone 8-2 in the playoffs. Their defense has only gotten better as the season has gone on. Pascal Siakam and Haliburton have raised their games during the playoffs, as have several of their high-level role players.
The Pacers have better depth, better coaching (with due respect to Tom Thibodeau, who has done a wonderful job himself this year), and better health. That’s enough to narrowly provide them an advantage in the series.
Prediction: Pacers in 7
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Knicks vs. Pacers betting odds
The Knicks (-140) are favored to win the series against Pacers, (+115), per BetMGM.
Knicks vs. Pacers regular season series
The Knicks won the season series 2-1.
- Oct. 25, 2024: Knicks 123, Pacers 98
- Nov. 10, 2024: Pacers 132, Knicks 121
- Feb. 11, 2025: Knicks 128, Pacers 115
Haliburton had one of the worst games of his career in the first meeting between these two teams, going 0-of-8 for zero points. He was dealing with a bad back in the beginning of the season, but he fought through that injury to post 35 points and 14 assists two weeks later in a win.
The third matchup had Anunoby and Myles Turner both missing the game. Towns and Hart combined for 70 points and the Knicks outscored the Pacers in every quarter of a comfortable win.
MORE: Dame Lillard’s injury could mean end of Giannis in Milwaukee
Knicks vs. Pacers key storylines
Can the Pacers defense hold up?
The Knicks have obviously gotten better this year better due to the talent upgrades that they have made to their roster. Don’t sleep on the Pacers internal improvements though. They went from the league’s No. 24 defense last year to No. 14 this year.
Indiana’s defense has been even more impressive in the playoffs. The Bucks were the No. 10 offense this season (granted, they were missing Damian Lillard for part of their series). The Cavs were the No. 1 offense in the league and No. 2 all-time (they also had injuries to Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter). They held both of those teams below their season averages.
So much of the Knicks offense runs through Brunson that stopping him will determine if the Pacers defense bends or breaks. The Pacers have a fantastic point of attack defender in Andrew Nembhard. Brunson has killed Nembhard in that matchup historically, using his physicality to take advantage of Nembhard’s lack of size.
Jalen Brunson stuns the defense and cruises to the lane for the floater 😲
IND-NYK (2-2) | Game 5 on TNT#NBAPlayoffs presented by Google Pixel pic.twitter.com/Ia3LJtmLZK
— NBA (@NBA) May 15, 2024
The Pacers may need to stick Aaron Nesmith on Brunson. Nesmith is a bigger and more physical defender. He has done slightly better in that matchup, but Brunson has still scored at a very high clip.
Whoever the Pacers pick, it will take the entire team’s focus in order to slow Brunson down.
MORE: Aaron Nesmith, once compared to a paperclip and a piece of string, is now Pacers X factor
Can the Knicks slow down the Pacers?
It’s no secret how the Pacers win games. They push the ball up the floor better than any team in the NBA. That advantage usually goes away in the playoffs. Indiana is a rare exception. They are so committed to that style of play on every possession that even teams who gameplan for it can’t totally stop it.
The Knicks get their fair share of fast break points too. But for the most part, they like to play a deliberate style of offense. They ranked 26th in the league. A slower game favors them.
Thibodeau is perhaps the most demanding coach in the league. The Knicks were the No. 10 in the league at preventing fast break points during the regular season. They’ve slipped in the playoffs, possibly due to the extreme minutes load and fatigue that his players are under. They are going to be tested even further in this series.
Knicks vs. Pacers schedule
| Date | Game | Time (ET) | TV channel |
| May 21 | Game 1 at Knicks | 8 p.m. | TNT |
| May 23 | Game 2 at Knicks | 8 p.m. | TNT |
| May 25 | Game 3 at Pacers | 8 p.m. | TNT |
| May 27 | Game 4 at Pacers | 8 p.m. | TNT |
| May 29 | Game 5 at Knicks* | 8 p.m. | TNT |
| May 31 | Game 6 at Pacers* | 8 p.m. | TNT |
| June 2 | Game 7 at Knicks* | 8 p.m. | TNT |
* If necessary
