It’s an amazing doubleheader in Indianapolis. Hours after the conclusion (weather permitting) of the 109th running of the Indy 500, the Pacers host the Knicks in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Indiana leads the series 2-0 after two wins in New York with both victories coming in dramatic fashion. The Pacers haven’t been to the NBA Finals since 2000.
Let’s start our engines and break down Game 3.
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Knicks at Pacers Game 3 Odds
Indiana was an underdog in the first two games of this series on the road and covered both. Game 1 hit the over, while Game 2 missed by a half-point (223.5), depending on your sportsbook. Indiana is laying two points in Game 3, while the total is the same as it was for Game 2.
The Pacers have been the best bet in the NBA playoffs. They’ve won four in a row against the spread. They’re 9-3 against the spread in the playoffs and 7-5 over/under. New York is 8-6 against the spread in the playoffs and 6-7-1 over/under.
New York has lost their last nine playoff games in Indiana. The Pacers have hit the moneyline in 50 of their last 69 games and hit the team over total in 12 of their last 14.
New York is 9-15 this season as underdogs, but 5-2 as dogs in the playoffs. Indiana is 38-17 as a favorite.
Knicks at Pacers Game 3 Preview
New York star Jalen Brunson has done everything he can this series, with 43 points in Game 1 and 36 in Game 2, but his miss of a potential game-tying three with 8.1 seconds left in Game 2 looms large. It was exactly the kind of shot that Tyrese Haliburton and the rest of the Pacers have been making the whole playoffs.
New York has gotten off to good starts. They’ve won the first quarter in each of their last four games, but defensively, some holes have appeared. Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t been able to keep up with Pascal Siakam for the Pacers, and the Knicks bench has been non-existent. They were outscored by the Pacers bench 21-11 in Game 2.
Haliburton has made three or more threes in his last four playoff games against New York.
Fans might call for the Knicks to do something different, perhaps get more physical with the Pacers, but this is where the pace-and-space game is so fundamentally hard to stop. You can’t clothesline guys shooting threes. For New York to win, they just have to shoot better, period, and prove to Indiana that they can win.
Knicks at Pacers Game 3 Prediction
After watching that Wolves/Thunder blowout Saturday night, it’s tempting to say throw out Game 1 and Game 2 of Knicks-Pacers because they don’t matter, but I’m not going that route. New York looks a little dispirited. They clearly could have won Game 1, and they were in Game 2 until the end, but each time, Indiana was able to come away with the win.
And I can’t ignore all the data points saying Indiana. The Pacers are 4-1 at home in the playoffs. In the regular season, the Pacers shot 43.6 percent from the floor at home and on the road, while the Knicks shot worse on the road by 1.4 percent. That’s significant to me in a series where shooting is the real determining point. Indiana’s engines are humming.
The Pick: Pacers -2.0 (-110 at Caesars)
