The Denver Broncos have their hands full this weekend. We all know it. The Buffalo Bills have consistently been one of the best teams in the NFL for a handful of seasons now and Josh Allen has asserted himself as one of the best players in the NFL.
But the game still has to be played and the Bills will still have to deal with a young, hungry bunch from the Mile High City.
From the Broncos’ side of things, the focus is going to be on how well rookie Bo Nix operates under the pressure of his first playoff game. How will he handle everything the Bills throw at him? How will he deal with the noise from one of the most raucous crowds in the league?
It will be quite difficult for the Broncos to come away with a win in the Wild Card round and if they do, Nix will have to play well. But make no mistake, this team is where it is right now because of a tough, scrappy defense, and the keys to winning this game for the Broncos lie on that side of the ball.
Denver Broncos keys to upsetting the Buffalo Bills
Pat Surtain II
The best players make the biggest difference and as of right now, Pat Surtain is still the best player on the Denver roster.
It appears that the Bills will get Amari Cooper back for this game, which could be big for them, but Surtain’s ability to eliminate one side of the field could force Allen to take a different approach in this game.
Allen’s supreme arm talent gives him the confidence to throw the ball wherever he feels like it, but he has been prone to turning the ball over in his career. If Surtain can keep one of his receivers at bay, it could force Allen into some of those ill-advised throws.
Pat Surtain II & Riley Moss completely in sync. pic.twitter.com/xd8vVs19Ux
— DNVR Broncos (@DNVR_Broncos) January 9, 2025
It may not be Surtain himself that makes the play, but it will happen because of him. Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillain need to be on alert for those errant throws from Allen as he could try to force throws in this one.
Denver’s front seven
The Broncos led the entire NFL with 63 sacks on the season. Zach Allen is a player that the Bills will have to account for as well as the Denver front can overwhelm many offensive lines in the league. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper could play a huge role in this game off the edge as the Broncos need to try and collapse the pocket as much as possible in this one. .
But if and when they do, Cody Barton and Justin Strnad need to do whatever possible to limit what Allen does with his legs. Allen is not afraid to have the pocket crumble around him. In fact, he might be even better when it does. The Broncos need to force him into situations where he has to go against what he normally does.
The Bills are generally an aggressive offense. The Broncos need to match that aggression.
Vance Joseph calculating his blitzes
As mentioned earlier, the Broncos led the league in sacks this year. They accomplished that with a defense that doesn’t feature a top-flight pass rusher, though Bonitto has turned into one over the course of the season.
The scheme that Vance Joseph has installed is why the team has been successful, and his handling of those players during situational football might be the biggest reason this team has returned to the playoffs.
Looking at some advanced defense metrics, Joseph likes to blitz. Only six teams in the league blitzed the quarterback more often than the Broncos but when you look more closely into that number, only the Dallas Cowboys were able to get more pressure per dropback this season.
The Broncos were able to get pressure on 27.7 percent of the opposition’s dropbacks they faced this season. That is one in every four plays. This will be the key to this game.
They can’t blindly come at Allen, he’s too good for that. But knowing how and when to come at him will determine if the Broncos can pull this upset off. Looking at the stats provided here, Allen was blitzed 136 times this season and on those, he threw what was considered to be a poor pass 86 times.
One or two poor passes in this game could tilt things in Denver’s favor.
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