New York’s Madison Square Garden will be the home of a historic all-women’s fight card on July 11. The main event will see a trilogy fight between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano, this time for undisputed super lightweight gold.
Taylor (24-1) is 2-0 against Serrano (47-3-1). The first fight, the 2022 Fight of the Year at MSG, saw Taylor beat Serrano via a close decision.
The rematch was watched by 50 million households, serving as the co-main event alongside Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson. Despite being deducted a point due to headbutts, Taylor won in a somewhat controversial decision.
Both fighters head back to where it all began. They both could very well retire after this fight. However, the focus on fight night will be the person in front of them.
Can Taylor go 3-0 against Serrano, or will the seven-division champion finally vanquish Taylor and add more gold to her waist?
Along with the trilogy fight, the card is set to break the Guinness World Record for the most world championship belts ever contested in a single fight card (17 across five fights).
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire Taylor vs. Serrano 3 fight card.
Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 expert picks and full card predictions
Katie Taylor (c) vs. Amanda Serrano 3 for the IBF, WBA, WBC, WBO, and Ring super lightweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Amanda Serrano is the -166 favorite, while Katie Taylor is the +130 underdog.
Both fighters are the perfect dance partners. The third encounter is sure to result in fireworks.
The first fight was a close one, with Taylor beating Serrano via decision. Serrano landed more total punches (173 of 624 shots compared to 147 of 375 shots), but Taylor landed with more accuracy (39.2% compared to 27.7%). Serrano landed 44 strikes in an important fifth round and 32 in round ten.
The rematch saw Serrano land more accurate shots (324 of 734 – 44.1%) compared to Taylor (217 of 529 – 41%). The former went off in the later rounds, landing 215 strikes in the last four rounds. Despite that, and Taylor getting deducted a point for headbutting, the Irish fighter won in a controversial decision.
One can argue it’s 1-1. It’s also a moot point, but Serrano could have brought Taylor to the canvas if the fight had three-minute rounds. Regardless of the result, both women brought it.
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When Taylor moves her feet, she can glide around the ring. Her opponents often become frustrated and can make mistakes. Serrano is a complete technical fighter who has thrived in multiple weight classes. “The Real Deal” has the edge in power, but Taylor’s foot speed trumps that of Serrano’s.
Taylor will be sure to try to avoid Serrano’s crisp jabs and power shots, though Serrano will look to be aggressive. Taylor can draw Serrano in and counter shots with key blows of her own. Her strategy of playing it close to the vest is her best shot at avoiding flurries. She will now need to be wary about headbutts, which the referee will keep a close eye on now.
Will the cut Serrano suffered over her eye in the rematch play a factor?
Serrano’s lack of head movement can be used against her. Taylor has otherworldly endurance. If Serrano can start hot early instead of late, she can overwhelm and even tire out Taylor. Given Taylor’s strong chin, it’s hard to see a Serrano knockout take place at this point.
Serrano, via decision, this time one that can’t be disputed, is the right play here.
Sporting News prediction: Serrano via unanimous decision
Alycia Baumgardner (c) vs. Jennifer Miranda for the IBF, WBA, WBC, WBO, and Ring super featherweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Alycia Baumgardner is the -3000 favorite, while Jennifer Miranda is the +890 underdog.
Baumgardner hasn’t fought in almost a year, but that shouldn’t be a factor. Miranda presents a challenge, but can she avoid the champion’s hard shots?
The power-punching Baumgardner ranks seventh among all active fighters with a 41% power connect percentage. She also ranks tenth in +/- at 7.5. Against Mikaela Mayer, Baumgardner landed more power shots (82) and had a better connect percentage (116 of 335 shots – 34.6%).
Against Elhem Mekhaled, Baumgardner landed 141 of 542 shots (26%), landing multiple knockdowns to secure the win. Her power is legit, though her stamina is something that has needed improvement.
Miranda has never been stopped, but the 38-year-old may be biting off more than she can chew. Baumgardner’s last knockout win was a vicious standing TKO victory against Terri Harper in 2021. Motivated, Baumgardner’s strikes may be too much for Miranda to handle.
Sporting News prediction: Baumgardner via TKO (round six)
Ellie Scotney (c) vs. Yamileth Mercado (c) for the IBF, WBC, WBO, and Ring super bantamweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Ellie Scotney is the -1100 favorite, while Yamileth Mercado is the +540 underdog.
With a shot at a future undisputed title fight, Scotney and Mercado are ready to give it their all.
The 27-year-old Scotney has taken over the super bantamweight division. Against Mea Motu, Scotney landed 141 of 372 shots (47.9%), with 106 of those shots for power. She landed 48% of her power punches, with rights repeatedly connecting to Motu’s head.
Against Amanda Serrano, Mercado did have a better connect percentage (31% compared to 28%), but on fewer shots landed. 38% of those shots were for power. Since then, she has won six straight. Against Paulette Valenzuela, Mercado forced her against the ropes and punished her with hooks to the body.
Scotney may be the more technical fighter here, and can easily avoid being thrown by the ropes. Expect a solid back-and-forth affair, with the London-born fighter earning the win.
Sporting News prediction: Scotney via unanimous decision
Savannah Marshall (c) vs. Shadasia Green (c) for the IBF and WBO super middleweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Savannah Marshall is the -750 favorite, while Shadasia Green is the +420 underdog.
The fight is a clash of styles that may be familiar to one of the two.
Marshall ranks seventh among active fighters in total punches landed per round (14.1%). She throws the third-most jabs (27) per round and lands the seventh-most (3). Hartlepool’s own opponents land the fourth-fewest total punches (7.1).
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“Silent Assassin” forced Franchon Crews-Dezurn to make mistakes and tire out. Against the same opponent, Green labored through ten rounds in a losing effort. Green’s most impressive performance to date was against Elin Cederroos, knocking her down in the third round before battering her by the corner.
Marshall was scientific against Crews-Dezurn, avoiding wild shots from the latter. Facing a similar opponent, Marshall could employ the same game plan here.
Often, Green swings wildly, and it could lead to her tiring out. She has also faced less top-tier competition compared to Marshall. However, the unknown factor could work in her favor.
Given her ability to adapt, The Sporting News is going with a very impressive decision win for Marshall.
Sporting News prediction: Marshall via unanimous decision
Cherneka Johnson (c) vs. Shurretta Metcalf (c) for the IBF, WBA, WBC, WBO, and Ring bantamweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Cherneka Johnson is the -600 favorite, while Shurretta Metcalf is the +360 underdog.
The fight comes with minimal preparation for both, as Dina Thorslund was removed from the bout after announcing her pregnancy.
In the first of two fights against Nina Hughes, one with a controversial announcement from the ring announcer, Johnson landed 167 of 520 shots (32.1%), refusing to land single-digit blows. There was no doubt in the rematch, as Hughes’ corner threw in the towel after Johnson battered her for six+ rounds.
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Against Miyo Yoshida, Metcalf believed she didn’t put much power into her punches in the first fight. In the rematch, she used her height and reach to her advantage, using jabs and hooks in close range to press Yoshida. Metcalf’s high output, a theme of her career, was enough to secure the win.
At 40, can Metcalf keep up with Johnson, the power-hitting 30-year-old? As tough as they come, Johnson should overwhelm Metcalf and secure the win.
Sporting News prediction: Johnson via TKO (round seven)
Chantelle Cameron (IC) vs. Jessica Camara for the interim WBC super lightweight title
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Chantelle Cameron is the -3000 favorite, while Jessica Camara is the +890 underdog.
A recent signing to Most Valuable Promotions and a former Katie Taylor rival, Cameron is a true threat. Can she overwhelm Camara?
Cameron throws the second-most punches per round (60.8) and connects the fifth-most out of anyone (15.9). Cameron is a jab machine, throwing the second-most (27.2) and landing the third-most (4.1) jabs per round.
In the first Taylor fight, Cameron landed 141 of 565 (25%) shots, connecting with more power punches. However, Taylor adapted in the rematch. Despite a slip that could have been called differently, Taylor smothered Cameron. Cameron did land 83 of 255 shots, a better connect percentage that time (32.5%).
Regrouping, Cameron’s speed, strength, and stamina were too much against Patricia Berghult, as she looked to send a message to Taylor.
Camara showcased superior speed, agility, and aggression against former champion Hyun Mi Choi. Her momentum following that fight quickly vanished after a technical draw against Caroline Dubois. Camara only landed ten of 50 shots (20%), while Dubois bombarded her with shots, dropping her early in round one.
Camara is not an easy target. However, Cameron is as accurate as they come. If she really wants to make a statement, she will keep Camara uncomfortable early. An early knockout win seems likely for the now-interim champion.
Sporting News prediction: Cameron via TKO (round seven)
