With both of these sides currently sitting outside the top four, Saturday’s matchup between Juventus and AC Milan in Turin could be categorized as a play-out game in the race for Serie A’s UEFA Champions League places.
Juventus have yet to suffer a single defeat this season in league play, but their whopping 13 draws have them sitting fifth in the table, 13 points off league leaders Napoli. It’s been a frustrating season for the Old Lady, as they look sensational at the back but struggle finishing chances on the other end, leading to a number of dropped points.
Milan, meanwhile, look spirited under new head coach Sergio Conceicao, but they still sport the same major flaws that have steered them to a seventh-place spot in the standings. They won the Supercoppa Italiana in Conceicao’s first two games in charge but have been more recognizable since returning to league play, only just managing to turn around a 1-0 deficit against lowly Como last time out.
With the likes of Napoli, Inter, and Atalanta running away in a thrilling Serie A title race, it seems that Lazio, Juventus, Fiorentina, Milan, and Bologna will be left to battle for the final Champions League place, and a potential loser in this match would find themselves in a very difficult position playing an unenviable game of catch-up.
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Juventus vs. AC Milan prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Juventus (+130 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Juventus 1-0 AC Milan
Juventus are defensively stout and do just enough in the attack to feed forwards Dusan Vlahovic and Kenan Yildiz to generate the volume those players need to find the net. On the flip side, Christian Pulisic is suffering from muscle fatigue while Alvaro Morata is suspended, softening Milan’s already frustrating forward line.
Picking the home side to win at plus odds is the only real option here, as it’s too difficult to trust Milan in their current state.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Juventus win | +130 |
| Draw | +220 |
| AC Milan win | +220 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -120 N: -120 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: +110 U: -150 |
| Juventus -0.5 goals |
+120 |
| AC Milan +0.5 goals |
-175 |
Juventus vs. AC Milan match facts
- Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 6 p.m. local (12 p.m. ET / 9 a.m. PT)
- Location: Allianz Stadium (Turin, Italy)
- Referee: Davide Massa
- Last meeting: Juventus 1-2 AC Milan (Jan. 3, 2025 | Supercoppa Italiana)
Juventus vs. AC Milan best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: -150 (BetMGM)
Milan needed a penalty and an own goal to complete a late comeback in their recent Supercoppa meeting, but they struggled with end product against this defensively stout Thiago Motta side. That 2-1 final score broke a streak of seven straight meetings between these two teams with two or fewer total goals scored, combining for just one total goal across their last three matchups before that latest result.
With Pulisic either out injured or playing at less than full fitness, Milan will be down their best attacker against one of the best defensive sides in Europe, and Morata is suspended for this game. On the other side, Vlahovic is a black hole in the attack (just seven goals on 11.51 xG this season, a putrid return), and fresh competition for his spot in Randal Kolo Muani surely won’t be ready for game action quite yet.
When on the ball, Juventus are a total snoozefest. They have completed 9,977 passes this season, over 700 more than any other Italian top-flight club, yet they are fourth in Serie A in final-third passes with 1,933. That means just 19% of their completed passes ended in the final third, the third-lowest percentage in the league.
Sure, the odds aren’t great here, but there’s still value in the pick.
Juventus vs. AC Milan prop bet
If Juventus forwards could finish chances, Weston McKennie would be having a banner season. After finding himself on the periphery of Motta’s plans to begin the campaign, he has worked his way back into a starting role and proven invaluable.
Few players in Serie A do more with less than the American, who has produced 0.13 expected assists (xA) per 90 minutes, putting him in the top 20% of all midfielders in the Italian top flight. McKennie has generated just eight shot assists in his 879 minutes this season, but those opportunities have been worth 1.63 xA, placing him third with 0.2 xA per chance created amongst the top 200 playmakers in Serie A.
McKennie receives over five progressive passes per 90 minutes, placing him in the 98th percentile of Serie A midfielders, meaning he’s getting into dangerous areas on a regular basis. At nearly 5/1 odds, back him to feed the Juventus goal-scorers and pray they can actually find the back of the net.
