Joel Embiid is a seven-time All-Star, a two-time scoring champion, and only two seasons removed from winning the MVP award. He has suffered numerous injuries, but he’s still only 30 years old.
It may be somewhat surprising for fans to learn then that Embiid’s trade value is very solidly negative. If the Sixers try to move their star, then they are not going to get many interested parties.
Why Joel Embiid’s trade value is so low
Embiid has still been fairly effective in the 19 games that he’s gutted out this year. He’s averaging 23.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. That’s a far cry from his MVP numbers, but he’s still one of only five players hitting those marks (the others being Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Doncic).
Those statistics don’t tell the full story though. Embiid has been limping around the floor during portions of games and clearly does not look like himself. He played in just 39 games last season, and his knee has gotten bad enough that he’s considering another surgery on it.
That surgery would likely be a cartilage or meniscus transplant, according to sports medicine doctor Brian Sutterer. The timeline for recovery would be in the one- to two-year range, and the procedure is experimental enough that it is quite possible Embiid would never play basketball again. Lonzo Ball was one of the first NBA players to ever successfully return after that operation, but Ball was five years younger when he had it done.
Any team trading for Embiid now would thus be paying him to sit, and they would be paying him a lot. He signed a supermax contract back in 2022 worth an estimated $192.9 million through the 2028-29 season. His $59.5 million salary next year will be the second-highest in the league, and he may not even log a single minute.
We have seen some highly overpaid players getting moved, but there has never been a player on Embiid’s level. What makes his deal particularly onerous is the amount of years left on it. Teams would be crazy to take on the risk of paying him almost $200 million when he could conceivably sit out for the entire duration of that deal.
When he becomes an expiring contract in the summer of 2028, he will be much easier to move. For now, taking on his deal would kill any sort of roster construction for the next few years.
There is some good news for the Sixers when it comes to Embiid trades. They are an expensive team, but not enough to be in the apron during the offseason. That will make salary-matching requirements much easier in any deal. What could those deals be?
Potential Joel Embiid trades
The Sixers have three options right now when it comes to moving Embiid. They could either attach a ton of draft assets in order to move him, take on an equally bad contract, or do a combination of the two.
The Sixers will have three first-round picks and four pick swaps available to move after the 2025 draft. They also might have a terrific prospect from this draft, if they keep losing and manage to stay in the top six of the draft. If not, they will give a lottery pick to the Thunder.
Would it be worth attaching any of those precious assets in order to move Embiid? Probably not. Tyrese Maxey is a great young player, and Jared McCain looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate before a meniscus injury ended his season. That’s not really enough to build a contender around. Paul George has looked like a shell of himself, and whoever the Sixers get around that core isn’t going to be good enough to bring them back to title contention.
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If the Sixers did try to make a trade, the candidates are pretty bleak. Would they be interested in Bradley Beal? The Suns probably have to blow their team up and start over after how massively disappointing their Big Three have been. Beal was considered the worst contract in the league. Embiid’s might be worse now depending on how serious his knee injury is.
There’s not much else out there. The best path forward for the Sixers is to hope that Embiid’s future surgery is successful, he gets back on the court by the end of his deal, and he returns to a high level of play. If that doesn’t pan out, then they can explore trading him in three seasons when he’s an expiring contract.
Until then, the Sixers are stuck in a rough spot. With Embiid taking up 35 percent of their salary cap and not playing, it’s incredibly difficult to build a good team. That’s why no one else wants to take on that problem.
