When Jayson Tatum dove for a loose ball with three minutes left in Game 4, he immediately knew that his injury was bad. Tatum put his hands to his face and sobbed in pain as he was helped off the floor, eventually being wheelchaired out of the arena after suffering an Achilles tear.
The effects for Tatum are devastating. He was in the midst of one of his best playoff games, and he will miss the entirety of next season rehabbing his injury.
Now facing a 3-1 deficit against the Knicks, the Celtics’ championship hopes for this year look bleak. Put the present aside, though. His injury is going to be a pivot point not only for the Celtics future, but the entire league.
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How Jayson Tatum’s injury changes the Celtics’ future
Tatum has finished top-six in MVP voting over the previous three seasons and will extend that streak when the voting results are announced later in the playoffs. With him, the Celtics had a chance to rattle off several titles in a row. Without him, they will still be a good team. But those championship goals will be put on hold.
There were already whispers before Tatum’s injury that the Celtics could break up their team if they didn’t win another ring this season. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks and Brian Windhorst, their payroll as currently constructed is expected to exceed $500 million next season, making them by far the most expensive team in NBA history.
That figure won’t go down unless the Celtics make a big trade. Al Horford is their only relevant free agent. The rest of their players are under guaranteed contracts. That is a lot of money to pay for a team with a limited ceiling. It seems inevitable now that they will try to shed some payroll.
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At 34 years old, Jrue Holiday may be the most likely player to go. He’s still a very effective player, but his $32.4 million represents the easiest cost-cutting maneuver. Kristaps Porzingis is on an expiring $30.7 million deal. Jaylen Brown’s $53.1 million salary is the 11th-highest in the league, and that figure is only going up over the next three years. Everybody would want Derrick White, even at his $28.1 million owed next year.
All of those players will be mentioned in trade rumors over the summer. At least one of them will probably be moved in order to get the Celtics out of their bad financial spot.
The Celtics could trade those players straight into a team’s cap space without taking any salaries back. Two teams present those options — the Nets and the Jazz. Two other teams, the Pistons and Grizzlies, could also clear up enough cap space to make uneven trades where the Celtics would only be taking back a small portion of the money that they’re sending out.
Those teams could also be roped into more creative and complicated three-way trades, which is the most likely scenario to happen. That would allow Boston to trade their players to a much wider swath of contending teams without having to take back significant salaries.
If the Celtics do make a trade, then the idea for them would be to still keep enough of their team around to contend in two years and hope that Tatum can return to a high level.
Kevin Durant was able to do exactly that after tearing his Achilles at the age of 30. Other players like Kobe Bryant, Klay Thompson, and Rudy Gay were able to return as a lesser version of their old selves.
Tatum just turned 27, and he has youth on his side that those other players didn’t. Every player’s body is different, but there’s a good chance that he can still be an All-Star when he sees the floor again.
That future Celtics team will probably be worse than the group that won the championship. But if Tatum can get back to 90 percent of himself, they still should have enough to be a contender.
MORE: Breaking down Jayson Tatum Achilles injury recovery time
How Jayson Tatum’s injury changes the rest of the league
With Tatum and the Celtics out, the East is wide open. We’re looking at a likely Eastern Conference Finals featuring the Knicks and Pacers, which nobody could have predicted.
Beyond this year, who knows which team comes out of the East? The Celtics would have been heavy favorites without Tatum’s injury. Now, the Cavs, Knicks, Pacers, or some other dark horse all have a chance. The Sixers could change their fortunes after winning the No. 3 pick in the 2025 draft. Giannis Antetokounmpo could go to a new Eastern Conference team and make them contenders. A ton of possibilities have opened.
Every good team in the East should be talking themselves into making a big move this summer. Windows like this don’t happen very often. The 2019 Raptors made magic by trading for a one-year rental of Kawhi Leonard and winning their only NBA title. Something like that could happen again next year.
