The Boston Red Sox last made the postseason in 2021, advancing to the ALCS before falling to the Houston Astros, who lost to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series in six games.
In the three seasons since Boston has gone 237- 249, finishing in fifth place in the American League twice (2022-23) and in third place once (2024).
With just a few days left before the start of Spring Training, the Red Sox’s odds of making the playoffs in 2025 are just 45.3%, according to FanGraphs. That’s the 16th-best odds in the league, just behind the Texas Rangers (49.9%) and in front of the Toronto Blue Jays (40.7%).
Boston still has more moves it could make to improve its odds, including signing two-time World Series champion Alex Bregman. Last year, Bregman hit .260 with a .768 OPS, 26 home runs, and 75 RBIs in 145 games for Houston.
If the Red Sox fill their need for a right-handed hitter and a solid infield defender by signing Bregman, FanGraphs projects that their odds of making the postseason would improve by 10.8% to 56.1%.
That would likely change the other 30 team’s chances of playing postseason baseball, but those odds would currently be the eighth-best in baseball, just behind the New York Yankees (60.7%).
Obviously, these are just projections, if Boston is really that much better with Bregman, they should make a more serious push to sign him.
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