The Wednesday MLB slate features a couple different great home run situations to dive into. We, unfortunately, couldn’t get any home run picks correct yesterday after getting all three on Monday, but we have a great opportunity to bounce back today.
Below, we explain our best MLB HR picks for today, June 25th.
Best Home Run Picks for Wednesday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks:
- Trent Grisham (+285) on FanDuel
- Corey Seager (+320) on bet365
- Jo Adell (+350) on bet365
Grisham Goes Yard in Cincinnati
The best home run venue, by far, is this Yankees/Reds game at Great American Ballpark. The Reds home stadium is already one of the best home run stadiums in general due to the small outfields, but for today specifically the temperature is in the 90s with slight winds blowing out. The winds will not matter much as the ballpark is not very receptive to wind, but the hot temperatures will do plenty with carry for any fly-ball.
On top of that, the Yankees bats specifically should have a big advantage over the Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer, especially left-handed bats. On the year, Singer has allowed a home run every 24 at-bats against LHH, and all his advanced metrics against lefties are not good. He has allowed a barrel rate of 11.76%, HardHit rate of 49.62%, and a line-drive + fly-ball rate of 31.82%. All those numbers are bad across the board.
Grisham, meanwhile, has been excellent at lifting the ball, which matters a lot in a small stadium such as this. Over the last week, he leads the Yankees with a fly-ball rate of 64.3%, along with an excellent pull-rate of 57.1%. His HardHit rate of 57% is solid as well, so look for Grisham to hit a dinger tonight.
Seager Busts Slump with Homer Tonight
Seager has admittedly had a tough time in the home run department recently, with only three home runs since he came back from injury on May 28th. That was his second IL stint with a hamstring injury, but he has shown signs that he is coming out of that slump with the way he has been hitting recently.
He has 13 HardHits in his last seven games, with a HardHit rate of 61.9%. The biggest issue for Seager, and why he has not been able to hit home runs, was his inability to hit fly-balls over this cold spell, but over this same timeframe his average launch angle is a respectable 17.3 degrees. So, recently he has been both hitting the ball hard and putting the ball in the air, which are two important things for hitting a home run.
This is also a great home run venue specifically for left-handed hitters, as Oriole Park has a short center and right field. Seager only hits to the opposite side of the field roughly 25% of the time, so if he connects on one tonight it has a great chance to clear a fence for the Rangers.
Adell Says Hello to a Home Run
From strictly a pitcher perspective, no team has a great opportunity to mash home run that the Los Angeles Angels, and our favorite pick of the bunch is Adell to go yard. Richard Fitts is on the mound for the Red Sox, and, despite having a great name, has gotten pummeled when pitching in the majors.
This year, in roughly 20 innings pitched, Fitts has allowed a HR/9 of 2.14, allowing a home run every 16 at-bats. However, all five of his home runs allowed have been hit off right-handed hitters, allowing a HR every 10.80 at-bats to righties specifically. In his last start, he only made it through one inning before allowing three home runs.
All his numbers across the board (barrel rate, HardHit rate, line-drive + fly-ball rate) would be among the worst in baseball if extrapolated out to all qualified pitchers.
As for Adell, he has been red hot at the plate over the last month, and in any split in-between then. He leads the Angels in barrels over the last 30, 14 and 7 days, with four barrels over the last week specifically. He also has a solid 10 HardHits in this seven-day stretch, which is a solid number.
He has only seen Fitts one time in his career, but that one at-bat was hit for a home run with the baseball traveling over 400 feet and over 100+ mph exit velocity. Let’s hope he can do the same thing tonight.
