The Saturday MLB betting slate not only features a full slate of 15 games, but also incredible home run weather across the board. We have temperatures in the mid-90s in a lot of locations, with heavy winds in some already positive home run venues.
We managed to get one to clear a fence yesterday, thanks to Nick Kurtz in the late game. Let’s hope we can have some more luck today, so please check out our best MLB home run predictions for today, Saturday, June 21st.
Best Home Run Picks for Saturday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks:
Tucker Homers in Windy Wrigley
The Cubs home stadium, Wrigley Field, has a wide variance on whether it is a positive or negative home run venue, and it is almost 100% dependent on the wind. With that thought in mind, for today, we have about the best conditions you could possibly ask for in terms of home run weather.
The temps are in the 90s, but not only that, there are 20+ mph winds blowing out of the stadium as well. Wrigley is the stadium that is the most receptive to wind, so on a day like today, when there are heavy winds blowing out on an already hot day, it makes for almost picture-perfect home run conditions. Guys to consider in situations like this are players who can hit the ball hard, of course, but also have the skillset to consistently hit fly-balls. Luckily, Tucker checks both of those boxes.
The reason Tucker has been among the best home run hitters over the past couple of seasons is his ability to consistently put the ball in the air, which has continued in a Cubs uniform. This year, he has a fly-ball rate of 49.1%, which is the 12th-highest in the MLB, but that number has gone up to 57.7% over the last two weeks. He did not go yard yesterday, but he did hit a baseball 400 feet, it just happened to be to dead center field.
James Wood Rakes in Los Angeles
Wood is a young batter who has shown that when he is on, he can really demolish the baseball. That is the case recently, with three HardHits in each of his last two games, along with three barrels in this stretch. Of those six HardHits, five of them were over 100 mph exit velocity, and two of those were home runs that traveled 400+ feet.
Hitting the ball with high exit velocity is something Wood has done all season, with the ninth-fastest average exit velocity in the entire MLB. His EV logs are why he is tied for 7th in the MLB with 20 home runs.
As for tonight, he is playing at Dodgers Stadium, which is a hitter-friendly park, and he has a starting pitching matchup that he should have success against. Dustin May has allowed eight home runs this season, which is not horrible overall, but his biggest issue is his sinker. If his sinker does not sink, it gets tattooed, which is why five of those eight home runs have been hit off his sinker despite the fact that it is less than 40% of his pitch mix.
Wood, meanwhile, has incredible numbers against the sinker from a RHP, with a 16% barrel rate and 58.82% HardHit rate.
Brenton Doyle Sends One Yard at Coors
Doyle was one of our selections yesterday that did not come to fruition, but it was not for lack of trying. He had two HardHits, one that was sent over 390 feet with a 102 mph exit velocity and 23 23-degree launch angle. That checks essentially every box one could hope for a home run, but it did not go our way.
What that does mean, however, is that Doyle continued to swing a hot bat, and that a home run barrage should be on the way soon. Over the last week, he is one of eight batters with 13 or more HardHits, and he has 21 over the last 14 days. Those are excellent numbers, but he has zero home runs to show for it. With a fly-ball rate above 40% in this stretch, he is due for some good luck.
Luckily for us, this game tonight is conducive to home runs. Coors is generally a positive home run venue due to the high altitude, but, for tonight specifically, the temperatures are in the high 80s/low 90s, which will help even more with carry. Eventually, Doyle is going to have a stretch where he hits three home runs in four games, or even two in the same game. Hopefully, one of those is tonight.
