The holiday weekend comes to an end on this Sunday, but the good news is that all 30 teams are taking the diamond once again today. So, we have a full 15 game slate for our home run picks.
It is another solid schedule from a weather + venue perspective, so we are hoping for better luck today after not getting any of our three to come through yesterday. Below, we explain our best MLB home run picks today, July 6th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Sunday
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Kurtz to Go Yard at Sutter
Kurtz has been excellent since being called up to the majors in May, and we like for that to continue today in what is an excellent situation for him to hit a home run. For starters, the A’s home stadium, Sutter Health Park, is among the best home run venues in the league.
For today specifically, it is in the 90s with low barometric pressure, and double-digit winds blowing out of the ballpark. All those factors will help in a stadium that is very receptive to winds impacting the trajectory of the baseball.
Kurtz, meanwhile, after a mini slump over the past week, seems to have broken out of that with three barrels in his last two games, including two yesterday. The biggest advantage for Kurtz, though, is the starting pitching matchup against Hayden Birdsong, who gets hit hard by lefties.
On the year, Birdsong has allowed a home run every 19 or so at-bats against LHH, but over the last five weeks that number has jumped up to ever 13 at-bats. Kurtz takes him yard tonight.
Suarez Sends One Deep in Arizona
The Diamondbacks home stadium is admittedly not among the best stadiums to pick home runs due to their large outfields, but that has not mattered for Suarez. He has actually been significantly better at home, with 19 home runs hit at home to only nine hit away. Those 28 home runs put him with the fourth-most in the MLB, by the way.
As for today, Suarez has the benefit of going up against Michael Lorenzen of the Royals, who gets hit hard by righties. Over his last five starts, he has allowed a home run every 13 at-bats to righties, with the biggest issues for Lorenzen being his sinker and slider.
Suarez just so happens to crush both of those pitches from RHP, with a .500 ISO rate and 1.276 over the last month off those two pitches from a righty.
Marte Joins Suarez with a Dinger of His Own
While Lorenzen struggles more when facing right-handed hitters, it is not as though he is good when facing a lefty. With Marte being a switch-hitter and Lorenzen being a RHP, Marte will be batting from the left side today.
Over this same five start span for Lorenzen, he has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats against LHH. So, not as bad but still a below-average number and perfectly acceptable for these purposes of taking Marte to hit a home run.
Marte had the day off yesterday but has otherwise been fantastic for a month now. He is one of 10 batters with five or more barrels over the last week, one of 11 with eight or more barrels over the last 14 days, and one of eight batters with 15 or more barrels over the last 30 days.
It has been an extended hot stretch for Marte who has shown no signs of slowing down, so here’s hoping he stays hot tonight.
