Monday has several intriguing MLB matchups, including some juicy home run venues and leaky pitchers on the mound. There are 13 games to consider for our home run picks.
Below, we explain our favorite home run predictions. There are MLB betting bonuses on bet365 and Fanatics to make these HR picks.
Pasquantino Continues Hot Stretch, Homers Monday
There is not a batter in the MLB riding a better streak at the plate than Pasquantino, who has hit a home run in six out of his last seven games. It is truly a remarkable run he is on, and the only game in which he did not hit a home run he had three crushed baseballs that left the bat at 106.9 mph EV, 111.8 and 112.7.
We always say that home runs come in bunches and to treat the MLB season as a series of mini-seasons, and there is no doubt that Pasquantino is currently in home run hitting form.
He also has a fantastic matchup to hit another one today going up against Shane Smith of the White Sox. On the year, Smith has allowed a home run every 21 at-bats to left-handed hitters, a number that has jumped all the way up to every 13 at-bats over the last six weeks. In this six week stretch he has allowed a barrel rate of 10% and a HardHit rate of 55.50%, two well below-average numbers. Pasquantino hits another one tonight.
Greene Goes Long at Sutter Health Park
Greene is another batter that hit a home run yesterday, and he also has a great opportunity to hit another one tonight. While Greene is certainly not as hot at the plate as Pasquantino is (no hitter is), he has still been hitting well recently. He has eight barrels and 18 HardHits over the last two weeks and is one of only seven batters with eight or more barrels over the last two weeks.
This is also the best home run venue of the day, which is typically the case at any Athletics home game. The temperature will be in the 90s when the game starts, with double-digit winds blowing out mostly to center field. All in all, this game has a +30% home run index, which is the highest of all the games today.
J.T. Ginn is the Athletics starting pitcher tonight, who has allowed a home run every 13.50 at-bats to lefties this year. Ginn throws a total of four pitches to lefties (sinker, cutter, changeup and sldier), and Greene has an ISO rate of .242 or higher against all four of those pitches from RHP. He goes yard tonight.
Anthony Homers at Oriole Park
Anthony might be the unluckiest batter over the last couple days in terms of crushing baseballs that don’t clear fences. Yesterday, he sent one to the warning track that traveled 397 feet. For context, two home runs were hit in that game last night that were not hit that far. Then, on Saturday, he had a double that hit the top of the wall, and a flyout that traveled 387 feet.
What this does mean, however, is that Anthony is hitting very well at the plate, and he has a good matchup tonight. Tomoyuku Sugano is the Orioles starting pitcher, who has allowed a home run every 21 at-bats to LHH.
While he has been better recently, he is still allowing a barrel rate of 8.50%, HardHit rate of 45%, and a combined line-drive + fly-ball rate of 60%, so there is nothing in his advanced numbers to fear. Hopefully, Anthony can turn that luck around and clear a fence tonight.
