The weekend comes to an end with a great Sunday betting slate featuring 15 games. The night ends with Sunday Night Baseball between the NL Central rivals with the Cubs taking on the Cardinals in St. Louis.
Below, we explain out favorite home run picks for Sunday, August 10th. You can use MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to place these HR prop bets.
MLB Home Run Picks for Sunday
Contreras Homers on Sunday Night Baseball
This play on Contreras is backing him against left-handed pitching, which he has good numbers against. His ISO rate jumps up to .243 against LHP, up from .173 against RHP, and all his numbers across the board are better against lefties. He has stayed hot against LHP recently, with a .300 ISO, 10%-barrel rate, 67% HardHit rate and 44% fly-ball rate against LHP over the last 30 days.
The lefty he will be facing is Shota Imanaga, who can get hit up by righties. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 18 at-bats to RHH, with the 4-seam fastball being the biggest issue for him. 11 of the 14 home runs that he has given up to RHH this year have been hit off his 4-seam fastball.
Contreras, meanwhile, has fantastic numbers against the 4-seamer from LHP on the year: .263 ISO rate, 13%-barrel rate and 56% HardHit rate. He goes yard tonight.
Trust Carpenter at Comerica Park
Carpenter returned from a hamstring injury at the end of July, and he has been fantastic in the games since his return, taking out his first game back. He is hitting .407, with a 1.037 slugging, .630 ISO and 1.466 OPS, which are just absurd numbers across the board. He has played in nine games overall and has four home runs.
So, we are backing a red-hot batter at the plate, and for today he has an excellent matchup against the Angels starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz. On the year, Kochanowicz has allowed a home run every 17 at-bats to LHH. While he has been better recently, there are nothing in his advanced numbers to show a pitcher that should be avoided.
Carpenter also hits more home runs in the comforts of his home stadium, with a .324 ISO rate at home vs. .218 away. This does make sense, as Carpenter has a fantastic pull-rate (45%), and the Tigers home stadium has a relatively shorter right field. Here’s hoping he hits another one at home today.
Adell Stays Hot, Joins Carpenter with Home Run in Detroit
Speaking of batters that are red-hot at the plate, nobody is scorching hotter than Adell at this current moment in time. He has hit a home run in back-to-back games and has four home runs in his last five. Instead of avoiding that kind of run at the plate, we are banking on another one from Adell in a decent matchup.
Adell had also gone 14 straight games without a home run heading into this stretch, so it only makes sense for him to go on a barrage after a decent slump.
As for today, Casey Mize is on the mound for the Tigers, who is a decent pitcher overall but can give up home runs to RHH. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 20 at-bats to righties, with a low K rate of 17% and a decently high barrel rate of 8% and HardHit rate of 46%. With good numbers against his pitch-mix, look for Adell to hit go deep once again today.
