Weekends are always fun over the summer, as we get three straight days with a full MLB slate for our home run picks. That is the case and then some today, with 16 games on the schedule thanks to a double-header between the Marlins and the Braves.
Below, we look at our favorite HR prop bets for Saturday, August 9th. You can use several MLB betting bonuses on the top sportsbook apps to place these wagers.
MLB Home Run Picks for Saturday
Schwarber Adds to NL Home Run Lead with HR
Schwarber has been on a ridiculous run at the plate, basically the entire year but especially since the all-star break. Overall, he is second in the entire MLB in total home runs with 41, leading the NL and only two behind the MLB leader in Cal Raleigh.
That said, since MLB has returned from the All-Star break he has been on another level. In that stretch, he has hit 11 home runs, which leads the MLB. One other batter is close to him with 10 home runs, and everybody else is at eight or below. Unsurprisingly, he leads the MLB in total barrels in this stretch as well with 16.
Not only did he hit a home run yesterday, but he added four HardHits total, three of which were 100+ mph exit velocity. The home run he hit was absolutely crushed, 115 mph off the bat.
Jacob deGrom is on the mound for the Rangers, which sounds scary in theory but deGrom has struggled against lefty bats this year. On the year, he has allowed a HR to lefties every 19.50 at-bats or so, which jumps up to every 12 at-bats over the last five weeks. Schwarber hits another one tonight.
Perez Goes Yard in Minnesota
While there are not a ton of good weather games on the slate today, this game in Minnesota is one of the good ones. There are only two games with a +10% or higher home run index, one of which is this game at Target Field thanks to the relatively hot temperatures in the mid to high 80s and low barometric pressure.
Looking at Perez, he is one of nine batters with 12 or more HardHits over the last seven days, adding a respectable two barrels in that stretch as well. He has been hitting well and has a good opportunity to go yard tonight.
Bailey Ober is the pitcher for the Twins, who is nicknamed Bailey “Over” thanks to his ability to allow a lot of home runs. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 17 at-bats, and every 10.50 at-bats over the last five weeks. While he does allow more home runs to left-handed hitters, a lot of his advanced metrics are worse against righties than they are lefties.
Either way, this is a matchup that Perez should have the advantage over, so look for him to clear a fence tonight.
Trust Soderstrom to Hit One Deep at Oriole Park
Soderstrom was a revelation at the beginning of the year when it felt like he hit a home run every day to start the season. While he has certainly cooled off since then, he has come out of that slump recently. He hit a home run back-to-back days on Wednesday and Thursday, and despite not hitting a home run yesterday he still had a good day at the plate with two HardHits, both above 100 mph exit velocity.
Overall, Soderstrom has nine HardHits over the last week, and 17 over the last two weeks. Those numbers are not going to put him in the Hall-of-Fame, of course, but they are respectable.
This is another situation where we love the matchup for the batter, though, this time with Soderstrom going up against Brandon Young. Young has only made nine starts this year, but he has been hit up in these nine starts. He has a 5.88 ERA, allowing a home run every 16.50 at-bats on the year and every 13 at-bats to LHH.
He has below-average numbers across the board from his low strikeout rate of 18%, to a high barrel rate allowed of 9% and HardHit rate of 48%. That is a bad combination, and with Oriole Park being a slightly better venue for left-handed hitters thanks to a shorter right field, let’s hope Soderstrom can homer tonight.
