We have a full MLB betting slate of 15 games on Wednesday to consider for our home run picks. Acton starts at 12:05 pm ET in Washington D.C., with the final game of the day set for 8:05 pm ET in Arlington, Texas.
We consider hot weather conditions, pitching matchups and other factors. Below, we explain the best home run bets for today, July 23rd.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Wednesday
Use MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel, bet365 and Fanatics to make these home run bets today.
Torkelson Hits Homer in Pittsburgh
Despite the matchup in Pittsburgh not being one of the juicy weather situations, Torkelson is one of the best home run picks on the board. He has nine HardHits since the All-Star breaks, with at least two in four of the five games since the return. He continued to hit well yesterday, with three HardHits, two of which were over 100 mph exit velocity.
The reason this is such a good play is due to the pitching matchup of Torkelson up against Pirates starter Bailey Falter. Falter is a lefty, and Torkelson has been fantastic against LHP all year, including recently. Of all qualified batters in the MLB, Torkelson has the fifth-best ISO rate against LHP in the entire MLB at .362, which is a fantastic number.
Falter has also struggled keeping the ball in the yard all year, and especially recently. He has allowed a home run every 21.54 at-bats on the season to RHH, which jumps up to every 10.50 at-bats over the last five weeks with a horrible barrel rate allowed of 12.70% in this stretch. He throws the 4-seam fastball almost 60% of the time to RHH, and Torkelson has fantastic numbers against the 4-seamer from lefties.
Trust Contreras at Coors Field
This is one of those positive home run venues, which is typically the case at Coors Field and is no different today. This game has a +16% home run index, with temperatures in the mid to high 80s and low barometric pressure, which all leads to more carry of any baseball hit in the air.
As far as Contreras goes, he matches Torkelson with nine HardHits since the return of the All-Star break, with three barrels for Contreras. He also had three HardHits yesterday, including the hardest hit of the game at 111.5 mph EV, a double that traveled 406 feet and would have been a home run in 17/30 ballparks. He had another hit with exit velocity of 109.5 mph, and a separate HardHit flyout that would have been a home run in 20/30 stadiums.
There is some uncertainty regarding the Rockies starting pitcher, as it is rumored to be either Tanner Gordon or Kyle Freeland, but Contreras should have the matchup advantage over both of those pitchers, so it is no concern one way or another. Trust Contreras today.
Marte Goes Yard for Diamondbacks
Marte has only been back for two games since the break as he missed the first series, but he hit well in both games.
He has two HardHits in both of those games and especially had an impressive day yesterday. Facing one of the best pitchers in the MLB in Framber Valdez, a pitcher who is especially good at keeping the ball on the ground, Marte had two hits above 100+ mph EV, both of which were put in the air with a 20 and 22 degree launch angle. Neither cleared a fence, but it was still a good day overall.
Now, for today, Marte is facing another left-handed pitcher, but one that is much more likely to allow a home run in Brandon Walter. On the year, Walter has allowed a home run every 18.50 at-bats to RHH, and every 13.14 at-bats over the last five weeks. His advanced stats admittedly show a decent pitcher, but he has still struggled to keeping the ball on the ground all year. Marte crushes one tonight.
