The weekend comes to an end with a loaded MLB slate on Sunday, giving us some options for our home run picks. With a heat wave making its way across the East Coast, there are a ton of fantastic hitting weather games, specifically in the home run department.
Continue reading to view the best home run picks and odds for Sunday, July 20th.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Sunday
Trust Corbin Carroll in Arizona
This is the one home run play we have today that is not in a plus hitters’ venue. Instead, we are backing a hot batter in a great matchup. Carroll did not hit a home run yesterday, but he had an absolutely ridiculous day at the plate that included three total hits above 100 mph exit velocity, two of which were triples. It is harder to hit a triple than a home run, and Carroll managed to hit two of them yesterday. Here were those three hits from yesterday:
- 109.8 mph EV, 14 degree launch angle, 321-foot triple
- 109.3 mph EV, 21 degree launch angle, 354-foot triple (HR in 19/30 parks)
- 103.4 mph EV, 39 degree launch angle, 370-foot flyout
That is a very impressive day that somehow did not result in one home run, which is not something that will happen game over game.
Miles Mikolas is pitching for the Cardinals, who is generally a pitcher you want to target with lefty bats for home run props. On the year, Mikolas has allowed a home run every 20.50 at-bats to LHH, which has gone up to every 10 at-bats over his last five starts. His numbers across the board show a pitcher that has really been struggling, headlined by a 16.39%-barrel rate and 55.56% HardHit rate. Trust Carroll in this one.
Chisholm Jr. Clears a Fence Today
Jazz Chisholm Jr has been a favorite of ours over the last couple weeks, and for good reason, as he has been hitting the ball very well. Do not let the home run derby fool you, Chisholm Jr has been great over the last month. Looking at the last 30 days, he is tied with the most barrels in the MLB with 17, tied with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Pretty good company!
Similar to Carroll, he continued to mash yesterday despite not coming through with a home run. He had three HardHits total, two of which were above 100 mph exit velocity, with a flyout that was 104.7 mph EV and a single that was 103.7 mph EV. Neither had the necessary launch angle, but the important part is he continued to hit the ball hard.
Unlike the Carroll play above, this game has fantastic hitting weather, with a +16% home run index thanks to the 9-10 mph winds blowing out and the temperatures in the low 90s. Truist Field also has a shorter right field porch, making it generally a better venue for left-handed hitters such as Chisholm Jr. Take him to go long and be sure to check out daily MLB betting boosts on the bet365 app.
Baldwin Goes Long in Atlanta
Speaking of left-handed hitters playing baseball at Truist Park, our third and final pick is backing another lefty in this game, just one on the Braves this time in Drake Baldwin. Baldwin is a lesser-known batter who has not been an everyday player for the Braves, but his playing time has increased recently and, most importantly, he has mashed whenever he has been in the lineup.
He has started and played both games post All-Star Break, and he has rewarded the Braves with two total barrels and five HardHits in those games. He also did not him a home run, joining the two other batters for today’s plays, but he had two hits that were both above 100 mph exit velocity, and both traveled 380+ feet. One of them was the second-hardest hit of the game, absolutely smoked with an EV of 107.9 and launch angle of 21.
He enjoys the same weather benefits as Chisholm Jr does as detailed above, and should have the advantage over Yankees starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, who has really struggled against left-handed hitters this year.
