It’s Dinger Tuesday, which means we have a full 15 game MLB slate and several promotions to use for our home run picks. After a great day yesterday, getting two of our three players to mash one, let’s hope to continue the success tonight.
Below, we take a deeper look at the best home run bets for Tuesday, August 5th. We consider pitching matchups, weather conditions and other factors for these MLB betting predictions.
MLB Home Run Picks for Tuesday
Trust Henderson to Homer in Philly
Gunnar Henderson has had a disappointing year this year, which comes after an electric, breakout campaign last year. That said, there are signs that he is coming around, as he has been hitting very well recently.
Over the last seven days, he is one of only nine batters with 13 or more HardHits, adding a respectable three barrels and two home runs in this stretch. So, the HardHits are there, and he is starting to get more lift on the ball, which you see with the three barrels. He is also one of seven batters with 14 or more hits with 100+ mph exit velocity over their last 10 games.
As for today, Taijuan Walker is on the mound for the Phillies, who has been a home run machine recently. He has allowed seven total home runs over his last three starts, allowing a home run every 10.50 at-bats to LHH specifically in this stretch.
With a grotesque strikeout rate below 10% and a high fly-ball rate almost up to 40%, Henderson should have ample opportunity to crush one deep tonight.
Tovar Goes Yard at Coors
One area that is not dealing with the cold front is Denver, which will be in the 90s for the entirety of this game. The humidity is low, which is standard in Colorado, but the barometric pressure is also low. So, those cancel each other out, and the hot temps will help with carry. Overall, this game has a +25% home run index from a weather specific perspective.
Tovar has been fantastic recently, with four barrels and nine HardHits over the last week. He is one of 16 batters with four or more barrels in this stretch of games as well, putting him in decent company.
Jose Berrios is the Blue Jays starting pitcher, who is a unique right-handed pitcher who struggles significantly more against right-handed hitters. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 17 at-bats to RHH, up from every 44 at-bats to LHH. All his numbers from barrel rate to HardHit rate and across the board are worse against righties as well, so it is no fluke that he has also allowed more home runs to RHH.
He has been even worse recently, allowing a home run every 11 at-bats to righties over the last five weeks, with a horrific 14.50%-barrel rate, 54% HardHit rate and 39% fly-ball rate allowed to righties in this same stretch. Take this home run pick with the special Dinger Tuesday offer on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Montgomery Stays Hot, Homers in Seattle
Montgomery is a name most likely not known by most casual baseball fans, but he has been crushing the baseball recently. He ties Tovar with four barrels over the last week, and over the last 14 days he is one of only four batters with nine or more barrels. Kyle Schwarber leads the MLB with 12 in this stretch, with Montgomery tied with two other batters each with nine. He has also added a very good 20 HardHits over the last two weeks, consistently hitting the ball hard.
He has hit seven home runs over the last two weeks, only one spot behind the MLB leader in this stretch in Kyle Schwarber. Pretty good!
Bryan Woo, the Mariners starting pitcher, is a good pitcher overall but he can get hit up by left-handed hitters. He has allowed a home run every 21.50 at-bats to LHH on the year, which is well within the acceptable range for a starting pitcher to target.
Woo loves to throw the 4-seam fastball, which makes up for over half his pitch-mix to lefties. Montgomery, meanwhile, has fantastic numbers against the 4-seamer from RHP, with a .300 ISO rate and 11%-barrel rate. He goes yard late tonight.
