As we move into the latter stages of the fantasy football season, many fantasy managers are concerned with setting themselves up for success in the fantasy playoffs. These next two weeks are what we’ve spent the last four months preparing for, after all.
While these matchups are of the utmost importance, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking back to previous weeks to see what we can learn as well. Reviewing the results of past weeks and applying our findings to the future can help us get an edge over our opponents.
Here, we’ll be taking a look at the key stats, trends, and storylines that can help fantasy managers find success in Week 16 and hopefully beyond.
WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Fantasy Football Lessons Learned: Stats and trends to use in Week 16
Josh Allen further solidifies his MVP resume
Key Stat: Josh Allen has scored 93.26 fantasy points in the last two weeks, the 5th-most by any player in a 2-game stretch in NFL history.
Fantasy Takeaway: Josh Allen has highlighted this article for the last three weeks, and it’s completely deserved. The guy just keeps putting together unbelievable performances. Last week, Allen rushed for two touchdowns and threw for two more, leading the Bills to a victory over the Lions. This was Allen’s sixth career game (third this season) with multiple rushing and passing touchdowns. No other player has more than four in their career. With this sort of play, Allen is set up to lead teams to fantasy championships.
Lamar Jackson continues to put on a show through the air
Key Stat: Week 15 marked Lamar Jackson’s sixth career game (reg. season only) with five-plus passing touchdowns, as many as Patrick Mahomes.
Fantasy Takeaway: Everyone knows what Jackson can do on the ground, but his production as a passer often goes overlooked. Jackson has been sensational through the air this season. Among qualified passers, Jackson ranks 1st in yards per attempt, 4th in completion percentage over expected, and 2nd in EPA per play. Given this high-end play as a passer, Jackson can still be an elite quarterback, even in games where he isn’t rushing for 50-plus yards. The race between Jackson and Josh Allen for the QB1 title will be very exciting.
MORE FANTASY: WEEK 16 WAIVER WIRE & FAAB RECOMMENDATIONS
We’re left asking “what if” with Amon-Ra St. Brown
Key Stat: The Lions have run 918 plays this year, 106 of which have come while trailing by multiple possessions. 60 of those 106 plays came last week against the Bills.
Fantasy Takeaway: That stat on its own is pretty wild. But this should leave us wondering what Amon-Ra St. Brown could have been this season if the Lions were put into trailing game scripts more often. St. Brown drew 18 targets (30.5 percent target share) last week against the Bills, the second-most raw targets of his career. If the Lions were forced to play catch-up more often, St. Brown could have been pushing Ja’Marr Chase for the WR1 title.
Rico Dowdle has been a one-man wrecking crew
Key Stat: Rico Dowdle (478 yards) trails only Saquon Barkley (551 yards) in rushing yards over the last month.
Fantasy Takeaway: Let’s take a moment to congratulate Rico Dowdle. He’s faced a string of cake-walk opponents and thrived, clearing 110 rushing yards in three straight games. But looking forward, it’s hard to view Dowdle as a locked-in RB2. He’s taken advantage of quality matchups, but the Cowboys’ two remaining games (Buccaneers and Eagles) in the fantasy playoffs could quite easily lead to game scripts where the rushing attack becomes an afterthought. It’s not like Dowdle is an elite pass catcher who can make up for it through the air; he has cracked a 10-percent target share just once with Cooper Rush under center. Riding the Rico wave has been great for the last month, but reel in your expectations in these final two matchups.
Defense reigns supreme in Week 15
Key Stat: There were 51 turnovers across the 13 games last Sunday, the most in a single Sunday slate since 2016.
Fantasy Takeaway: This doesn’t have a direct fantasy takeaway, but it was shocking to see sloppy play out of some of the NFL’s better quarterbacks like Joe Burrow (2 INTs, 1 fumble) and Tua Tagovailoa (3 INTs). We have seen a tug-of-war between NFL offenses and defenses throughout the year, and defenses got the upper hand in this one. Six defenses scored at least 15 fantasy points last week; don’t expect that to happen for the rest of the year.
The Adams-Rodgers connection is back
Key Stat: Davante Adams had 135 receiving yards in the final four minutes of the Jets’ victory over the Jaguars. This was the most receiving yards by a receiver in the final four minutes of regulation this century.
Fantasy Takeaway: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams looked like they rolled back the clock to 2020 when they connected for 1374 yards and 18 touchdowns. Adams’ 9/198/2 stat line led to 48.2 PPR points, by far his best outing of the season. This was also Adams’ third-straight game leading the team in targets, a very encouraging sign for his value during the final two weeks of the fantasy season. If they can keep this up, Adams can be a true difference-maker on fantasy rosters in the playoffs.
Jameis Winston has turned Jerry Jeudy into a fantasy stud
Key Stat: Jerry Jeudy has played 71 games in his NFL career; seven (9.9 percent) of those games have come with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Somehow, 19.1 percent of Jeudy’s career receiving yards have come in this 7-game stretch.
Fantasy Takeaway: He may not make NFL coaches very happy, but Winston is a fantasy king-maker. Every offense he touches turns to fantasy gold. In seven Winston starts, Jeudy is averaging 9.7 targets per game and 21.1 fantasy points per game. As long as Winston can hold onto his job, Jeudy is a strong WR2 or Flex option.
Elite RBs fail in the first week of the fantasy playoffs
Key Stat: The RB1, RB2, and RB6 in PPG (Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, and Derrick Henry) combined to score just 26.7 PPR points in Week 15, just 3.6 more points than Barkley’s per-game average heading into the week.
Fantasy Takeaway: This just illustrates the beauty (or horrors) of fantasy football. Players that carry your team all year can have a dud in the playoffs, and your season is over just like that. Depending on which side of this outcome you’re on, this sort of variance can make you a league champion or make you want to quit the game. If you were able to advance your team into the next round with one of these guys on your team, count your lucky stars and go win a championship.
Mac Jones continues to impress… in the wrong way
Key Stat: Mac Jones has attempted 18 deep passes (passes 20-plus yards downfield) this season. He has zero completions and five interceptions on these 18 attempts. Jones is the only quarterback this season with at least 10 deep attempts and zero completions on those passes.
Fantasy Takeaway: Jones’ inability to complete deep passes limits Brian Thomas Jr.’s fantasy ceiling to some degree. Thomas has been outstanding in recent weeks thanks to his high-volume role and playmaking ability, but if Jones could throw an accurate deep ball, Thomas might be taking over fantasy. Unless something changes, it seems like Thomas is going to have to get it done on his own by generating plenty of YAC.
Trey McBride makes NFL history
Key Stat: Trey McBride has 89 catches this season but does not have a single receiving touchdown. This is a record for the most receptions in a single season without a touchdown through the air.
Fantasy Takeaway: Even without a single receiving touchdown, McBride has been one of fantasy’s most valuable tight ends, coming in as the TE3 on the year. His 27-percent target rate is an elite mark for a tight end and he will continue to see enough volume to sustain elite production. The touchdowns are coming, and when they do, the league better watch out.
