There’s one thing about the upcoming offseason that has no suspense:
Kyle Tucker is the unquestioned best free agent in MLB.
There are lots of questions still to answer, namely:
Will Tucker stay with the Chicago Cubs? And how much money will he get?
MLB Trade Rumors writer Steve Adams thinks Tucker will surpass $400 million in total contract value and has a shot to get to $500 million.
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Here’s how Adams broke it all down in a new article out Saturday:
There’s no change up top. Tucker remains the cream of this year’s free agent crop. He’s not enjoying as much production, on a rate basis, as he did last year but has been healthier than last year. Tucker’s .271/.384/.474 slash is 41% better than league-average, per wRC+, and he’s just two homers shy of a fifth straight 20-homer season. He’s averaging 90.4 mph off the bat with a 42.4% hard-hit rate and has never posted an average exit velocity under 90 mph or a hard-hit rate under 41.9%. Tucker’s 23 steals in 2025 have him on pace to top his career-high 30. He’s only been caught twice. Given Tucker’s 26th-percentile sprint speed, that’s a testament to his baserunning acumen.
Tucker will play all of next season at age 29. He’s on track for a fifth straight season where he’s at least 30% better than average at the plate and a second straight year with more walks than strikeouts. This year’s 14.4% strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career and sits lower than his 15.2% walk rate (the second-highest of his career).
Tucker is a quality defensive right fielder with above-average arm strength and plus accuracy. Teams with needs in either outfield corner will be interested in Tucker, and he’s the type of talent for whom a team would look to create roster space via the trade market. Tucker won’t approach Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani territory, but he’ll have a case to top $400MM and could try to take aim at Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM mark with a big enough finish to the regular season and/or postseason performance. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer, but that won’t be a deterrent of any note in his market.
Cubs fans will certainly want Tucker to stick around.
This season’s outfield has been brilliant with Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
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Sure, it’s a lot of money, but the Cubs likely have it if they want to shell it out.
The big issue for Chicago is that Tucker is by far the best player available. Anybody planning to shell out big money this offseason will be looking at Tucker as the target, and that could result in a bidding war.
It’ll be a story to follow as the end of the season approaches, though. Tucker could always signal his intention about his Cubs future with some late-season comments. Stay tuned on this, because the money is coming soon.
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