AC Milan and Bologna lock horns in the final of the Coppa Italia on Wednesday.
The Rossoneri beat city rivals and UEFA Champions League finalists Inter Milan 4-1 on aggregate in the semifinals to secure their place at the Stadio Olimpico and give themselves a chance of a trophy that will add some positivity to a largely disappointing season.
Bologna are two points and one place above Milan in the Serie A standings, and they remain in with a chance of securing Champions League qualification again for next term, but it’s a slim one with only two matchdays left — especially after last week’s 3-1 loss to their final opponents. However, a first Coppa Italia trophy since 1974 would make this another memorable season for their supporters.
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Coppa Italia final prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: AC Milan (+145 on Fanduel)
- Score prediction: AC Milan 1-0 Bologna
Cup finals are perilous things to predict, but if we take recent form into account, backing AC Milan is the smart move here.
Not only did they beat Bologna 3-1 in a dress rehearsal for this final in last week’s league game, but the Rossoneri have won five of their past six matches and conceded only three goals in that run. Their opponents enjoyed a six-game winning run between late February and early April, but their form has derailed a little since then, and they have won just two of their most recent seven matches in all competitions.
It’s likely to be a close affair, but Milan possess the firepower to get over the line.
| Fanduel (USA) |
|
| AC Milan win | +145 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Bologna win | +195 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -122 N: -104 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: +102 U: -142 |
| AC Milan -2.5 goals |
+1340 |
| Bologna +2.5 goals |
-3000 |
Coppa Italia final match facts
- Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT)
- Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome, Italy)
- Referee: Maurizio Mariani
- Last meeting: AC Milan 3-1 Bologna (May 9, 2025 | Serie A)
MORE: All-time winners of the Coppa Italia
Coppa Italia final best bet
- Pick: Rafael Leao to score or assist
- Odds: +170 (Fanduel)
Rafael Leao missed the league meeting with Bologna due to suspension but should come straight back into the starting lineup for the final.
The Portugal star loves a big game. He got assists in the Supercoppa Italiana final and Coppa Italia semifinal wins over Inter Milan, had a hand in both goals in the key league victory over Genoa on May 5, and he scored in three of Milan’s one-goal wins during the UEFA Champions League league phase.
There are doubts over his long-term future at San Siro, and victory in this final would be some way for him to sign off. Plus odds for him to be directly involved in a goal seem too good to ignore, especially with the uncertainty around who will start at centre-forward making it tough to back a central striker.
Coppa Italia final prop bet
- Pick: Under 1.5 goals
- Odds: +200 on Fanduel
Milan have recorded the second-highest number of shots (530) and shots on target (187) in Serie A this season. Bologna have faced the fewest attempts (309) of any side in the league. There’s a good chance they cancel each other out, especially amid the tension of a final.
In last week’s league meeting, there were four goals but only nine shots on target in total, with a combined xG of around 2.2. Six of those attempts came in the second half in which Milan were chasing a deficit. This does not have the feel of a game where there will be plenty of clear-cut opportunities to score goals.
Under 0.5 feels a stretch, but at +205, backing the game to see a maximum of one goal feels reasonable.
