The first 12-team College Football Playoff is now down to a stage more familiar to the sport’s postseason.
Following three days of quarterfinal games, the expanded bracket has reached the semifinals, with a final four filled with blue-blood programs still playing for a shot at the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Here’s an early look at the next round’s matchups, which will be played Jan. 9 and 10 at the Orange and Cotton bowls.
Where: Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas)
When: Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
History lesson
These are two of the most prestigious programs in college football history, both in the top five all-time in wins. However, the Longhorns and Buckeyes have met just three times. The first was a home-and-home series in 2005 and 2006. Texas won the first matchup in Columbus behind Vince Young en route to a national championship that season, while Ohio State won the second in Austin and appeared in that season’s national championship game. They also met in the Fiesta Bowl to cap the 2008 season. Texas scored the game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left when Colt McCoy connected with Quan Crosby.
First look
These two teams were ranked in the preseason top four and stayed around there all season — until Ohio State’s shocking loss to Michigan to close the regular season. But that defeat appears to have woken up the Buckeyes in a big way. They demolished Tennessee 42-17 at home in the first round, then exacted revenge against Oregon in a 41-21 Rose Bowl blowout that was 34-0 at one point in the first half. The Ducks finished with minus-23 rushing yards when including OSU’s eight sacks.
Quarterback Will Howard has been on point with every throw and hasn’t been sacked in two CFP games, and star freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith looks like a player who could start in the NFL right now. Smith has 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns through two CFP games.
Texas has had a bumpier ride. The Longhorns beat Clemson 38-24 at home in the first round, a close battle to the end. Then the Longhorns needed to convert a fourth-and-13 to stay alive against Arizona State before eventually beating the Sun Devils in the second overtime of a thrilling Peach Bowl quarterfinal. Texas blew a 24-8 fourth-quarter lead and needed quarterback Quinn Ewers to save the day. Ewers completed 20 of 30 passes for 322 yards with three touchdowns — one on the big fourth-down conversion — and one interception.
The Longhorns running game has been important but inconsistent. Texas ran for 292 yards, on a 6.1-yard average, against Clemson but had just 53 yards on 1.8 per carry against Arizona State.
Can Smith and Ohio State find open space against Texas’ No. 1 pass defense, led by Jim Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron? Can Texas run the ball against Ohio State’s top-five rush defense?
Line: Ohio State -6.5
Why we should be excited
These two have been national title contenders since the preseason, and the winner goes to the national championship. It’s a heavyweight fight between two national brands with plenty of star power on both sides.
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Where: Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
When: Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
History lesson
These are two more blue bloods. Notre Dame is fourth all-time on the NCAA wins leaderboard, and Penn State is eighth. The programs are 9-9-1 all-time against each other, last playing a home-and-home in 2006 and ’07, both won by the home team. But they played 12 consecutive years from 1981 to ’92. Penn State won in South Bend in 1982 on its way to a national championship, while Notre Dame won in ’88 on the way to its most recent national title. The Nittany Lions upset the No. 1 Irish in South Bend in 1990.
First look
Penn State drew a favorable path in the bracket and has taken care of business with a 38-10 win against No. 11 seed SMU at home in the first round and a 31-14 win against No. 3 seed Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal. The Nittany Lions defense has six interceptions through two Playoff games. It returned two for touchdowns against SMU and held Boise State’s Heisman Trophy runner-up running back Ashton Jeanty to 3.5 yards per rush, his worst outing of the season. The defense runs this team.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar hasn’t been lights-out, but he has made enough big plays. Allar has completed 26 of 47 passes (55 percent) for a combined 298 yards and three touchdowns (all against Boise State) through two CFP games. Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are averaging close to 7.0 yards per carry each, and Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren has 10 catches through two CFP games, coming off a two-touchdown performance against Boise State. Star edge rusher Abdul Carter is one of the best defensive players in the country, but an injury against Boise State knocked him out of the game, and his availability for the Orange Bowl is uncertain.
Notre Dame handled Indiana 27-17 in its home first-round opener, a game not nearly as close as the final score implied, and then the Fighting Irish beat Georgia 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, the program’s first major bowl victory since 1994. The Irish completely shut down Georgia’s running game, forced a key fumble before halftime that led to a touchdown and stopped Georgia on fourth down multiple times. Quarterback Riley Leonard was his usual efficient-but-not-explosive self. He only threw for 88 yards, but he ran for 65 yards, including a diving flip to convert a critical third down late in the fourth quarter.
Notre Dame’s offense relies on that top-ranked running game, led by Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love (who appeared to be dealing with a leg injury in the Sugar Bowl) and running back Jadarian Price. The pass offense has not been prolific. Notre Dame was the worst field goal kicking team in the FBS during the regular season, making fewer than 50 percent of its kicks in part due to injuries at placekicker, but kicker Mitch Jeter is 5 for 6 on field goals in the CFP, including a 4-for-4 mark from beyond 40 yards. The defense has been among the best in the country, despite losing some key secondary pieces earlier in the year and losing sack leader Rylie Mills for the season against Indiana.
Line: Notre Dame -1.5
Why we should be excited
These are two historic programs looking to recapture the glory of the old days. They were expected to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the move to a 12-team Playoff, and they have capitalized. The two head coaches, Penn State’s James Franklin and Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, came into this season facing some pressure, which ramped up after their lone regular-season losses (Penn State to Ohio State in November, Notre Dame to Northern Illinois in September). No Black head coach has won an FBS national championship, and one of these coaches will have a chance to be the first. And one of these teams will have a chance to win their first national title in at least three decades.
(Top photo illustration: Chris Graythen, Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
