In this betting preview:
PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL—I didn’t have Brian Campbell on my BINGO card. I doubt anyone outside of family and close friends did, either. Campbell’s conquest of VidantaWorld is why I believe in a balanced card and live betting.
I am often asked, “Why the different bets throughout the week?” The simple answer is picking outrights is really hard. Imagine having a Potgieter ticket. That winner bet was worth as much as Aaron Rai or a player who didn’t even make the cut (not mentioning names Beau Hossler).
In the end, it’s a wonderful story and it keeps the team at RTL sharp. Wildcard winners force us to analyze every aspect of an event to find the long-shot winners. As a self-proclaimed GOLF FANATIC, Mr. Campbell. your challenge is accepted. Let’s get into the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches.
The following preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Cognizant Classic winners, finishing positions, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Cognizant Classic 2025 expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Denny McCarthy (+4000 on FanDuel)
Much more than a Bermudagrass specialist, Denny McCarthy can score on all surfaces with a putter. A solid start to the year, McCarthy finished sixteenth at the Sony Open and WM Phoenix Open. Those are two very different venues. Toss in a top five at Torrey for the Genesis Invitational and his game is incredibly well-rounded at the moment. A resident of southeast Florida, this is a winning fit for the TOUR’s true flatstick aficionado.
Best bet to place in the top 10: Shane Lowry (+250 on BetMGM)
Let’s not overthink this. On a tough track like PGA National, Shane Lowry has finished second, fifth, and fourth in his last three starts. Incredible in the wind and excellent at keeping his ball in play, Lowry’s ball striking is made for this test. Bermudagrass is Lowry’s best putting surface, and he really seems to embrace this Champion test. Take the 10 places and cash a winning placement ticket.
Best head-to-head bet: Ben Griffin over Davis Thompson (+100 on BetMGM)
Ben Griffin is the perfect underdog bet at PGA National. “Bermuda Ben” just finished fourth in Mexico and has gained four strokes per start over his last 10 tournaments. Davis Thompson finished thirteenth at Genesis, but that may have been a bit misleading. Thompson has been struggling with his irons, losing strokes in five of his last six starts. Davis also has been bad on the greens, losing strokes in six in his last seven. It’s “go time” for Griffin in Florida and in this 72-hole matchup.
Cognizant Classic 2025 live odds to win
Odds courtesy of FanDuel. Showing odds shorter than +10000.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Shane Lowry | +2000 |
| Russell Henley | +2200 |
| Sungjae Im | +2200 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +2800 |
| Sepp Straka | +2800 |
| Daniel Berger | +2800 |
| Min Woo Lee | +3500 |
| Denn McCarthy | +4000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +4000 |
| Davis Thompson | +4000 |
| Ben Griffin | +4000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +4000 |
| Cameron Young | +4500 |
| Jordan Spieth | +4500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +4500 |
| Byeong Hun An | +4500 |
| Alex Smalley | +5000 |
| Michael Kim | +5000 |
| Max Greyserman | +5000 |
| Andrew Novak | +5000 |
| Austin Eckroat | +5000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +5500 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +5500 |
| Rickie Fowler | +5500 |
| Billy Horschel | +5500 |
| Luke Clanton | +5500 |
| Gary Woodland | +5500 |
| Taylor Moore | +5500 |
| Lucas Glover | +6000 |
| Harry Hall | +6000 |
| Jhonnattan Vegas | +6000 |
| Brian Harman | +6500 |
| Niklas Norgaard | +7000 |
| Beau Hossler | +7000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +7000 |
| Seamus Power | +7000 |
| Bud Cauley | +7500 |
| Chris Kirk | +7500 |
| Ryan Gerard | +8000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +8000 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +8000 |
| Eric Cole | +8000 |
| Kevin Roy | +9000 |
| Jake Knapp | +9000 |
| C.T. Pan | +9000 |
| Brian Campbell | +9000 |
Cognizant Classic 2025: Betting preview
Watching an event like the Cognizant Classic can be misleading. Television coverage would lead you to believe that playing PGA National aggressively will lead to the weekend off. The more I watch TV (when I am home), the more I turn off the volume. Trust your eyes and really watch players attack the Bear Trap and more.
Austin Eckroat said it directly in his press conference, “I knew my game fit here so I was very confident. Most guys shy away from trying the hit the sixth fairway for example. I hit driver and made a couple birdies on that hole.” That’s very telling and goes to show, even the announcers explain the situation through their own personal golf lens.
With that in mind, I want supreme scorers who are currently playing with some swagger. Guys who have some stones and aren’t going to shy away from a full rip at the 17th green on Sunday afternoon. It sounds like I’m targeting a trending Daniel Berger, but I believe that one is a trap.
If all you see are the top 5s, then you forget how Berger gave this event away. That level of baggage is no good. Not to mention, in 21 Florida starts, Daniel has eight missed cuts and just five top 10s. He, like Keith Mitchell, are always considered “killers” on this course, but I’m still looking elsewhere.
The approach game should be really sharp from 125-200 yards. I realize that’s a wide range, but we’re looking to beat 143 guys. Winners gain here on approach more than double any other category. With the weather system I have witnessed all week, the green surfaces should be receptive.
Another factor favoring the best ball strikers off the fairway is the overseed. The team at PGA National overseeded everywhere and not just the rough. That’s going to have the fairways, chipping areas, and tees play less like Bermudagrass. Bermudagrass can create really tight surfaces, place a little space under that ball with Ryegrass and the best ball strikers will be really dangerous.
I like great drivers next. Sepp, Shane, Keith, Russell, Austin, etc… Confident, aggressive play off the tee is an advantage on the Champion Course. The five most recent winners gained an average of three strokes on the field OTT. Trouble lurks everywhere off the tee. Fifteen holes have water in play and getting the ball deep down the fairway is step one for success. I’m even stressing the tee ball on the par 3s. For the second week in a row, par 3 scoring machines have the ability to separate. Take those guys again and put them all over your card and throughout your DFS lineups.
Eleven medium length par 4s are also a great scoring category to favor. This is a par 4 aficionado’s playground. Remove that fourth par 5 and this skill sets you apart even further. Florida 4s are always a challenge when you consider 90% of them have water, sand, or a combination of both. While in Florida, we need Bermudagrass putters.
I looked through the best performers on all four FedEx Cup season Florida venues. Some guys are just good down here and we need to switch our thinking from west coast to southeast and play them. Everyone must score on the 5s, as the winners average 19 birdie or better scores and the remaining holes are just plain hard.
The par range averages match up. Quick reminder, these are the holes where the leaders make the largest gains on the field.
- Par 3 – 175-200
- Par 4 – 400-450
- Par 5 – 500-550
Get ready for some crazy scoring. We are used to waking up and waiting for west coast golf to begin. Transitioning to getting up with the lead or much worse is no more evident than an alarm clock for PGA National. Get ready for a wild ride; welcome to the Florida swing. The Masters is just 43 days away. It’s go time on the PGA TOUR and our card is loaded with runners in Palm Beach Gardens.
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Cognizant Classic 2025: Course and conditions
Many of us have been waiting for the Florida swing. Is it familiarity, Bermudagrass, the eastern time zone, or proximity to golf’s biggest events on the horizon? For RTL it is all of the above! PGA National’s Champion Course needs little introduction. Perennially one of the toughest tests on TOUR, outside of a major championship, one would think the past champions list mirrors more of a “major” look.
Over the last decade, the average winner’s pre-tournament odds are +10300 (103-1). Every tournament presents something unexpected, and in my mind, this is the unique characteristic of this tournament. With an average winning score of 10 under par in those same years, one would imagine elite players always contending. Truth is, we have not had a winner under +3000 in seven years.
I attribute that to the volatile nature of this golf course. Much like TPC Twin Cities, there is a ton of trouble out here off the tee (and on approach). Comp course alert, don’t be surprised if Bermuda specialists who also play well in Minnesota are effective. Facing a chance for double bogey on more than half your swings creates crazy scoring situations!
PGA TOUR players are very good at managing their games, but golf is really hard. Make one miss and you’re outside the top 10, let alone winning. I asked Austin Eckroat during his press conference, “How did you win here and a place like el Diamante in Mexico?” His answer was simple, some weeks you have IT. When you do, you go for it.
We received a little rain on Monday afternoon and into the evening. Certainly enough to dampen the surfaces significantly, but not enough to last past Thursday. Rain fell last week in Palm Beach Gardens as well, but the amount they keep getting once a week is just enough to keep the course in elite condition.
As I walk around, this place is healthy from an agronomy perspective. The golf course will be a story this week, but it won’t be because of the condition. The PGA TOUR has set up a tough and fair test. Speaking of tough, all of the “Bear Trap” talk can go overboard. Especially when you consider how the three-hole trap on the front nine can kill your score. Holes 5, 6, and 7 you face a similar 3-4-3 combo just as you see on 15, 16, and 17. Not nearly as flashy, the front three play 0.65 strokes over par. That’s historically 0.05 strokes tougher than the Bear Trap.
The forecast calls for a slight breeze and temperatures rising into the low 80s. We should have perfect golf weather if the forecast holds up. The cutline dropped below par for the first time in 18 years. Some say the scorecard is softer with the tenth hole as a par 5, but 15 holes with water in play and 60 bunkers also create a championship challenge of their own.
The par-71 scorecard stretches 7,147 yards. That’s 20 yards longer than last year as 20 yards have been added to the tenth. The average green size is 7,000 sq/ft and they are all covered in beautiful Bermudagrass, or that’s at least what I tell myself when I putt on Bermuda. This grainy weed can give you fits and the specific reason why the “Florida guys” are about to come to the forefront.
All 144 players are vying for the top 65 and ties to play the weekend. The purse is up a little at $9.2 million and $1.66 million for first-place. We have only seen two repeat winners in the last 40 years (Harrington, Calcavecchia).
Please don’t tie your horse too tightly to the recent past champions plaque. As I mentioned earlier, it is quite an eclectic crew. Vegas has set the winning score over/under at 15.5 under par. That number seems low, but when you add the extra par 5, the proposed middle point makes perfect sense. If the wind forecast remains the same, I think the winning score goes pretty low. Eckroat won a year ago at 17 under par and I’m leaning toward a similar score in 2025.
Sixteen of the top 50 in the OWGR are on property. Many of those competitors live in town. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem as if TGL has helped increase the elite status of this field. It has helped RTL, having two tours that we cover in one place limits the frequent flyer miles for the next couple of days. The late addition of Jordan Spieth against some of the TOUR’s up and coming stars is a fun side-plot. Let’s see how Spieth’s new wrist competes against the next generation of elite ball strikers.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 38 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
