In this betting preview:
Davis Riley beat Scottie Scheffler by five strokes last year to win the Charles Schwab Challenge. To compound the improbable, our venue, Colonial Country Club, is in Fort Worth, Texas, near Scottie’s hometown of Dallas.
Riley opened the week at +35000 to win. I distinctly remember that line because I thought he would play well. The minute I read 350-1, I questioned my sanity. We took Riley for a top-40 placement at +300! I mention this story as a quick reminder that crazy things can happen, and this course called Colonial is one where the rank and file just might have a Jim Carrey chance against the far-and-above best player in the world.
With the Wannamaker trophy in tow, Scheffler entered the week at +250 when the odds dropped on Sunday night. Scottie’s son was still crawling around the 18th green and the oddsmakers did not give this field much of a chance. It’s reminiscent of three weeks ago, starting CJ CUP week (in Dallas), where Scheffler was +275 and the next closest on the board was Jordan Spieth at +2000.
Do these guys have a chance? Davis Riley did pull off a miracle last year, but the simplest answer is usually the correct one. We must get creative to build a winning portfolio at the Charles Schwab.
This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Charles Schwab Challenge winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Charles Schwab Challenge 2025 best bets
Best bet to win: Daniel Berger (+2200 on DraftKings)
I’m just not betting Scheffler at +250 — or whatever the closing number is — even though he’s the most likely to win and wind up an even bigger favorite at Muirfield Village next week. Instead, let’s go with a strong value pick in Berger.
Once 12th in the OWGR, Berger beat a world-class field at Colonial in 2020 after the COVID restart. He will need all of that mojo and more to get past Scheffler in this form. The ball striking is there, and the putter is about half the time. A quick return to a comfortable place, and Berger’s comeback becomes complete at Colonial.
Best bet to place in the Top 10: Harry Hall (+600 on DraftKings)
Hall has gained over seven strokes against the field in his last two starts. He has two keys: around the green play and putting. Throw in a very positive week on approach shots at the PGA, where he finished inside the top 20. I love this trend, and combined with a top 3 finish at Colonial in 2023, I’m taking Hall and 10 places.
Best head-to-head bet: Harris English over Si Woo Kim (-120 on DraftKings)
Fresh off a runner-up finish at Quail Hollow, we’re riding with English on a tough track. Eleventh at Truist and 12th at the Masters, he has been cruising lately on approach and with the putter.
Kim also finished inside the top 10 at the PGA. The problem: he gained most of his strokes with the putter. We all know he can’t continue that gain (+6.8). Harry is very good on tough tracks, and Colonial will test these guys. Give me English over Kim in the Charles Schwab.
Charles Schwab Challenge 2025 betting odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Showing odds of +9000 and shorter.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +250 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2200 |
| Daniel Berger | +2200 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| Aaron Rai | +3000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3000 |
| Harris English | +3500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +4000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4000 |
| J.T. Poston | +4000 |
| Davis Thompson | +5000 |
| Davis Riley | +5000 |
| Brian Harman | +5500 |
| Keith Mitchell | +5500 |
| Ben Griffin | +6000 |
| Andrew Novak | +6000 |
| Michael Kim | +6000 |
| Lucas Glover | +6000 |
| Ryan Gerard | +6500 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +6500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +6500 |
| Bud Cauley | +7000 |
| Harry Hall | +7000 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +7000 |
| Taylor Moore | +7500 |
| Alex Smalley | +8000 |
| Kevin Yu | +8000 |
| Samuel Stevens | +9000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +9000 |
| Pierceson Coody | +9000 |
| Max Greyserman | +9000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +9000 |
| Jake Knapp | +9000 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +9000 |
| Eric Cole | +9000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +9000 |
| Tom Kim | +9000 |
| Tom Hoge | +9000 |
| Christian Bezuidenhout | +9000 |
Charles Schwab Challenge 2025: Betting preview
Seven of the top 25 players in the OWGR will attempt to take down the number one player in the world. There are 135 players in the field, and the top 65 and ties will have a chance to take home a piece of a $9.5 million purse. Colonial Country Club has been a host venue on the PGA TOUR for just short of 80 years. Knowing that, one would think we have a ton of historical information to assist in breaking down the betting board. Turns out, this fantastic Perry Maxwell design was restored, renovated, and reinvigorated by the team of Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner before the 2024 edition. Riley won by five strokes over the field at 14 under par.
The average winning score over the last decade is 13 under par, so how much did they change? The project was run on a very tight timeline. Hanse and Wagner tore apart every hole and rebuilt them. When the TOUR returned 365 days later, the paint was still drying. The greens made us all wonder if the course’s name was “Concrete” Country Club. New surfaces can play very firm. They will have somewhat softened with an extra year of maintenance, play, and weather, but I don’t expect their overall firmness to go away. Colonial plays as one of the top 10 most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR when it comes to scoring. Last year, following the renovation, it was ranked the seventh most difficult on the PGA TOUR, which was the hardest it had played since 2019.
We know some of that can be subjective based upon course conditions, weather, and strength of field, but overall, Colonial is always an entertaining test. Our forecast looks great compared to the deluge(s) the PGA of America had to deal with in Charlotte. Temperatures are predicted in the high 80s, so the ball will be flying. That could present a series of issues, as late spring in Texas can be windy, and the Bermudagrass rough has not been overseeded. Gone are the green landscapes of Quail Hollow; Colonial is going to show us a little more of its dry side. We will see wind values up in the high teens and mainly come out of the south, especially over the weekend. Colonial’s routing is a good one. That south wind direction will give us a bunch of crosswind holes.
Perry Maxwell designed the routing around the Trinity River. His initial vision had been muted in many ways. Some of that was due to Colonial CC’s location in a floodplain. Many of the modifications over the years were not necessarily improvements as much as they were done to protect the course. Cement walls blocking erosion, earth moved to preserve Perry’s putting surfaces, etc. The original design had been seriously lost until Hanse/Wagner came in. To their credit, both created a wonderful new par (70) examination. Believe it or not, they didn’t add any length in this process! A true restorative piece of work, they simply gave us a winning score equal to what it always has been. I mention this because golf course architects can do amazing work without adding 500 yards.
If you like trends, then this information is for you. The field hits less than 60% of their fairways at Colonial. Twenty-eight acres of landing area surrounded by Bermudagrass will test the best. CCC is ranked in the top 10 on TOUR for an increased penalty if you miss the fairway. Targets are small at Colonial as the average green size is 5,000 sq/ft. You won’t see tons of long approaches like you did at the PGA, but the field will hit fewer GIRs than the PGA TOUR average this week. That is interesting because the average approach length is around 150 yards. Forty-five percent of all approaches are launched between 125-175 yards. Tributaries of the Trinity River run through the course and give us six holes with water in play. Toss in 64 bunkers and just one year’s worth of green experience, and I expect the winning score to be around the 10 under par. Maybe even a little less if that wind blows over the weekend.
All of this (again) points us in one direction. If you run a predictive model and Scheffler is not the top-ranked player, your computer is broken. Scottie’s super power(s) is accuracy off the tee, and especially on approach. When I walk with Scottie’s group on-site or see him on the practice tee with Randy Smith, he hits every shot pin high. A great lesson for amateur players, the quickest way to lower your score is to take enough club. Pride is one of the seven deadly sins, and when I watch Scottie, he’s always landing the ball at the proper depth. In my mind, that’s the most comparable characteristic between him and Tiger Woods. Tiger always hit it pin high. Go back and watch the tournaments on YouTube. It’s uncanny how often these two do it. What’s not uncanny are their odds. Scheffler’s now consistently in Woods’ world when it comes to outright value. Based upon the display we just saw in Charlotte and knowing the last time he played against a similar field in Texas (won by eight), it should be lower.
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Charles Schwab Challenge 2025: Colonial Country Club course overview
Our par 70 layout this week covers 7,289 yards of Texas terrain. The stage is set for Scottie Scheffler versus the field. As if Scheffler didn’t need any motivation, in his last three starts at Colonial, the results are: lost in a playoff, third, and runner-up one year ago. If there was any chance Scottie might come in without his usual edge, forget it. Much like Tiger, if he’s coming, then he’s there to destroy any hope you may have of winning. Truth be told, when Scottie won at TPC Craig Ranch (CJ CUP Byron Nelson), we all thought that course was an average fit for his game. Then he went and won by eight strokes. Looking ahead, Colonial is by far a better fit for his game. CCC is a ball striker’s paradise. This was Ben Hogan’s place. Forever beloved by golf fans for his ability to hit a golf ball, Scheffler is on a path to receive the same reverence.
To win, you are going to have to go through him. Scheffler’s game is a perfect fit for this course because it places a heavy emphasis on accurate approach play. Over 45% of the approaches are fired at the hole from between 125-175 yards. To take it a step further, and due to the recent renovation, the landing zones players have to hit require amazing precision as well. Missing those small targets implies a reliance on around the green acumen, but we’ll get to that in a minute. Proximity to the hole in that eight iron, nine iron, and pitching wedge range is a difficult area to differentiate yourself. These guys are on the PGA TOUR and although not all of them will be great this week, a vast majority are very good at these approaches. After a combined 13-stroke separation in his last two wins, we know without a shadow of doubt that Scheffler is.
If you are looking to separate with your irons, there are two ways you can do it. We have seven opportunities where a long iron comes into play. Two of those happen on the par 5s, and the rest on the 3s and 4s. Hit those shots close, make a birdie, and you will pick up shots. The second area you can contend with your irons requires the shortest clubs in your bag. Four of the last six winners have lost strokes to the field with their wedges. The negative numbers imply short game is the least influential of the four major strokes gained categories. I would argue it is more important than it appears. These are short holes. Just compare the course to last week. Players were hitting approaches on the Green Mile from 220! They will be 100 yards closer at Colonial.
Contenders may not miss many GIRs this week. As such, they have fewer short-game opportunities to shine. A timely par save on this venue will be the difference between winning and losing. No kidding, Keith, and here’s the point. I believe these green complexes are difficult to get up and down, and if you can gain any strokes on the field from close range, you will have an advantage. The average winning score is 13 under par. Bogey avoidance is a huge consideration this week. In my mind, more so than strokes gained off the tee. The fairways are difficult to hit, and guys will lay back where they need to. The advancement of these surrounds and the firm Bermudagrass grain make it very hard. I’m evenly weighting BoB% and bogey avoidance.
Par 70 scoring favors players who can tear apart par 4s. There are 12 of them this week. That’s one more than last week, and two more than the standard “TPC” scorecard. On weeks like the Schwab, I’m weighing that cumulative category. I also believe this is a huge comp week complemented by Colonial course history. Harbour Town, Innisbrook Copperhead, Sedgefield Country Club, Sander Farms, and Wailai are all on my list. You can try Southern Hills for the 2022 PGA, but most guys won’t be in that field and it was in major championship form; far different from a regular TOUR event.
Davis Riley continued the trend of earning strokes against the field on the greens. The last 10 winners have gained an average of six strokes against their competitors in the week they won. The new green complexes following the renovation continued that pattern last year, and I expect, just like Quail Hollow, the best putters will be featured over the weekend. Due to the dry conditions, I’m also weighing putts inside 10 feet. Similar to Quail Hollow, there will be some rollout. Give it a little extra tap, and you’re going to face four-footers on these beautiful Bentgrass surfaces. Great putters can place the ball close to the hole from any length. Speed control and short ones are what I want to see out of our contenders to try and stop Scottie’s bid for three in a row.
Colonial Country Club is a very straightforward place, and these guys are still trying to learn all of the renovation nuances. Scheffler’s game applies anywhere. He just won on two completely different courses by an average of 6.5 strokes! Check the card carefully this week. We will have some unique betting opportunities listed. We won the w/o Scottie market bet with Bryson last week, and it can be done again. We have to get crafty to cash a couple of winning tickets.
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