After one of the best individual performances in NBA history, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks (43-34; 39-36-2 ATS) are in South Beach to take on the Miami Heat (35-42; 37-39-1) Saturday night.
Antetokounmpo went off for 35 points, a career-high 20 assists, and 17 rebounds in the Bucks win over the Sixers. It’s the first time anyone has put up such a ridiculous stat line in NBA history. He’s listed as probable for tonight with a sore foot. The Bucks will be without Damian Lillard due to a groin injury. Lillard is expected to return at some point this season.
The Bucks are sitting sixth in the East, a game back of the Pistons who they play twice to end the regular season.
Miami has won six of their last seven games and has locked in a Play-In Tournament spot. They’re tied with the Bulls for ninth, and there’s no one else behind them. They play the Bulls in a week. Home court in that 9/10 Play-In game matters.
Bucks vs. Heat: By The Numbers
Milwaukee has won the last three meetings, by seven points in February and by 29 in January. Remember, the Bucks started the season 2-8. Throw that out, and the Bucks are probably the 3-seed in the East right now.
The Bucks are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games. Their last five games have all hit the over. Coincidentally, both teams are 39-38 over/under this season.
For all the talk of Antetokounmpo, he’s second in the NBA in scoring at 30.4 a game, but he’s never done that well against Miami. He’s only averaged 19.5 against the Heat in his career, and only scored 20 or more points seven times in 37 games.
Miami has won nine, yes, nine straight games against the spread. That can’t last….can it?
Bucks vs. Heat Betting Pick
In a way, Miami’s in a better spot than the Bucks are playoff-wise. They know they’re going to be in the Play-In, it’s just a matter of nine or ten. The schedule sets up nicely for them with the Sixers, Bulls (that’s the big one), Pelicans and Warriors. Three of those teams are going through the motions. In other words, the Heat can afford a loss tonight.
Miami is 10-18 since the Jimmy Butler trade in February. They lost 10 in a row, then came back to win six in a row. Erik Spoelstra is one of the NBA’s best coaches. The Heat had to find out what they could be without Butler, and they did. They rely on Tyler Herro (23.9 points a game) and Bam Adebayo, who’s played well lately, but his numbers are down for this season. Miami doesn’t have the offense they did, but they always played hard.
Milwaukee has reason to fight tonight. They’ve won two in a row since a four-game losing streak. They lead the NBA in three-point shooting (that’s because of Lillard), but Antetokounmpo is one of the game’s unicorns. In a league full of athletic marvels, he’s one of a few. The Bucks shook things up at the trade deadline, too, shipping out Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma has fit in well (14.6 points per game).
When Milwaukee has everyone playing, they’re a contender in the East. Even without Lillard, they have enough firepower to overcome the spread and beat the Heat.
The Pick: Bucks -1.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
