With their Champions League jitters from earlier this season now quelled, Real Madrid look to secure an improved standing in the knockout stage as they wrap up the league phase with a trip to French side Brest on Wednesday.
For a time, it appeared that Los Blancos could be at risk of an early elimination, but their 5-1 win over RB Salzburg last time out mathematically ensured a place of undetermined status in the ensuing stage.
Now, they are hoping to climb as high as they can with a last-day victory. A Round of 16 bye via a top-eight finish isn’t out of the question should outside results go their way, but in all likelihood their ceiling will be capped at a seeded position in the playoff stage.
Their French hosts are surprisingly in a similar situation, sitting a point above Madrid in 13th and eyeing a seeded knockout spot themselves.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Brest vs. Real Madrid prediction, odds
Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and longshot fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2024, he has correctly predicted 54.2% of match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans for a total profit of 31.8 units.
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+425 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Brest 2-2 Real Madrid
- Best bet: Brest double chance (+195 on BetMGM)
Brest are a true mid-table Ligue 1 side, which normally wouldn’t be given a chance in Europe’s top competition. Yet in the new format, Brest have done well to lean on their home results, where they have been much better. Home wins over PSV and Sparta Prague coupled with an impressive draw against Leverkusen makes up most of their points haul.
Madrid, conversely, have been dreadful on the road this season. Across La Liga and Champions League play, seven of their nine adverse results (draws and defeats) have come away from home, including a defeat last time they traveled to France, when they fell 1-0 to Lille.
Given Madrid’s road struggles and lack of true qualification stakes (they’ve already wrapped up a playoff spot and have very little chance of reaching the top eight), the odds presented for an upset are too good to pass up. Especially with Madrid’s Champions League superhero Vinicius Jr suspended.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Brest win | +625 |
| Draw | +425 |
| Real Madrid win | -275 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -145 N: +100 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: +110 U: -155 |
| Real Madrid -1.5 goals |
-110 |
| Brest +1.5 goals |
-135 |
Brest vs. Real Madrid match facts
- Date: Wednesday, January 29, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Stade de Roudourou (Guingamp, France)
- Referee: Espen Eskas (NOR)
- Previous meeting: None (First meeting)
MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Brest vs. Real Madrid
Brest vs. Real Madrid best bet
- Pick: Most goals in half — 2H
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
Sure, Brest would be thrilled to get an early goal and force Madrid to panic, but in reality, their best chance of collecting valuable points would be to reach halftime with the scoreline unblemished.
That would play right into Madrid’s style, as the Spanish giants have been all too happy to plod through the first half before outlasting their opposition. In La Liga play this season, Real Madrid have scored 10 more 2nd half goals than those before the break, and they have the highest expected goals and shots on target of any club in the second half of matches, including attacking behemoths Barcelona.
The same goes for the Champions League, where they again have the highest expected goals of any league phase club and are second with 13 goals. Before the break? Four goals on 5.54 xG, ranking them 14th.
Brest vs. Real Madrid prop bet
Given Vinicius Jr. will be absent from this match due to suspension, Kylian Mbappe figures to play an even greater role in the Real Madrid attack. Unfortunately, the betting market has appropriately adjusted, or in some cases even overcorrected.
Yet there’s precedent that Mbappe can clear this high bar for shots on target. He has a strong history against Brest from his days in Ligue 1, scoring six times in eight top-flight matches, plus three more in two Coupe de France games. In the league fixtures, he averaged 3.3 shots on target against Brest and he clocks in at 2.4 per game this season in La Liga action — which mostly comes in games with Vinicius on the pitch.
Another player who will almost certainly get more action with Vini out is Jude Bellingham. The England star has scored in three of the past six La Liga games Vinicius has missed and racked up nine shots across the other three. He’s also back to his best from a creative standpoint, assisting twice against RB Salzburg last week.
