Despite sitting 10.5 games back in the National League East and eight games back of the third Wild Card, the Atlanta Braves aren’t the obvious sellers that their 38-45 record would indicate.
With a roster stacked with former All-Stars, the Braves certainly have the talent to climb out of the hole they have dug themselves, especially with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider back in the mix. After all, their +12 run differential indicates better days ahead, and they have begun to right the ship a bit with an 11-8 record since June 9. Moreover, a theoretical sell-off wouldn’t provide much benefit to the Braves, as their only two pending free agents are Raisel Iglesias, who has a career-worst 5.28 ERA, and Marcell Ozuna, whose defensive limitations and off-the-field issues sink his value.
Pending a total collapse in the next month, a soft buy may be an effective strategy for the Braves. This would mean that they wouldn’t be in the mix for the trade deadline’s best prizes, such as Jarren Duran or Seth Lugo, but instead look to fill out their roster with low-cost additions. The most obvious spot for upgrade is the back-of-the-rotation, as Chris Sale’s most recent injury has made the Braves turn to the likes of Bryce Elder (5.82 ERA) and Didier Fuentes (10.82) for spot starts in the most crucial stretch of the season.
With Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Grant Holmes at the top of the rotation, the Braves don’t need another frontline starter. What they need is someone who can eat up competent innings, and CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson believes they can find a match in Arizona Diamondbacks veteran Merrill Kelly.
“If the Diamondbacks decide to sell, Kelly will be an appealing candidate for teams seeking rotation help,” Anderson wrote. “Even nearing his 37th birthday, Kelly remains an above-average starter who leverages a deep arsenal (six of his pitches have usage rates over 7%) to atone for his substandard velocity.”
Even as the Diamondbacks rotation has imploded around him, Kelly has been the model of stability this season. He has failed to go at least five innings only once and allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 17 starts. That should be music to the Braves’ ears, who just saw Fuentes and Elder allow 15 earned runs in 5.1 combined innings during the most recent turn through their rotation. Throw in the fact that Kelly is an impending free agent who won’t require much prospect capital, and it’s hard to picture a more perfect fit for a teetering Braves team.
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