In this betting preview:
OWINGS MILLS, MD—The BMW Championship is by far one of the best PGA TOUR events of the season. The Western Golf Association does two very important things in running a next-level playoff event:
- First, they take incredible care of the players and their caddies. Imagine looping for JT Poston this week and driving around in your own X7 courtesy car. That’s a very nice touch.
- Second, they make it a great fan experience for those on-site and at home. On-site, there are a number of great activations, hospitality opportunities, and they have the 50 best players of the year. For those on the grounds and watching from home, they select incredible venues.
By moving the tournament around, they effectively become like another major. Every year, there is new intrigue, new holes to learn, and another 10-20 guys who break into the top 50 who weren’t there last year.
Think about it: how many other events on the schedule move? Going back to Riviera and Muirfield Village is cool year after year, but look at the places the BMW has taken us over the past few years: Olympia Fields, Aronomink, Medinah, Castle Pines, and Crooked Stick. Looking ahead, the WGA has already selected Bellerive (2026), Liberty National (2027), and Hazeltine (2029)!
Forty-one of the top 50 in the OWGR are here, along with 23 of the top 25 on the Ryder Cup points list. Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau were cut in Memphis. Remember, the top 6 on the points list get finalized for Bethpage on Sunday night, along with the top 30 heading to the Tour Championship. A great event that annually finds an amazing venue and exceeds our expectations for entertainment value. The rest of the PGA TOUR should take notice.
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BMW Championship 2025 best bets
Best bet to win: Rory McIlroy (+800 on DraftKings)
Caves Valley Golf Club is a perfect fit for Rory McIlroy. Walking with McIlroy during his practice round, you can really sense it. Rory cuts corners, flies bunkers, and makes aggressive approach shots into these green complexes that only two or three other players can even attempt.
With Scottie Scheffler’s caddie Ted Scott away, I’m choosing the next best player, who would love nothing more than to send a strong Bethpage message to the field.
Best bet to place in the Top 10: Kurt Kitayama (+320 on DraftKings)
Sitting at 37th place on the FedEx Cup Points list is Kurt Kitayama. Always known for his consistent ball striking, Kitayama has been on an incredible scoring run over his last five starts. Kurt is ranked number one in the field for BoB%, won the 3M Open, and added another top 10 last week in Memphis.
An elite driver combined with a scintillating putter, Kitayama finished fifth at the John Deere Classic last month. He can easily jump into the Tour Championship with another strong finish at the BMW.
Best head-to-head bet: J.J. Spaun over Sam Burns (-120 on DraftKings)
I have been betting on Burns all summer, and it is time to jump off the train. Starting in Scotland, Burns began to lose his consistency. One week it’s the driver, next it’s the irons, and even the putter! Sam lost four strokes T2G in Memphis.
Meanwhile, Spaun has gained T2G against the field in eight of his last nine starts, going back to the Truist in May. Spaun almost looked defiant on Sunday in Memphis when he was missing 30+ foot putts in the playoff. Backing confidence like JJ has right now is how you cash.
BMW Championship 2025 betting odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Showing odds shorter than +9000.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +225 |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2200 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +2800 |
| Cameron Young | +2800 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +3500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +3500 |
| Chris Gotterup | +3500 |
| Ben Griffin | +3500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +3500 |
| Sam Burns | +3500 |
| Russell Henley | +3500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4000 |
| Justin Rose | +4000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +4500 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +4500 |
| Harris English | +4500 |
| Corey Conners | +4500 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +5000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +5000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +5000 |
| Harry Hall | +5500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +5500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +6500 |
| Shane Lowry | +6500 |
| Sungjae Im | +7000 |
| Brian Harman | +7500 |
| Andrew Novak | +7500 |
| Nick Taylor | +8000 |
| Jason Day | +8000 |
| J.T. Poston | +8000 |
| Denny McCarthy | +8000 |
BMW Championship 2025: Betting preview
Forget what little you did know about Caves Valley Golf Club. The BMW Championship brought this suburban golf shrine into the media mainstream in 2021 when the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs visited Baltimore for the first time.
An impeccable piece of property, Tom Fazio designed the course in 1991. Led by legendary PGA Professional Dennis Satyshur, the facility has been on the Golf Digest Top 100 list for decades. In 2021, the official tournament scorecard played to a par 72 that stretched 7,542. Seven players scored 268 (20 under par) or better. Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau both shot 27 under par through four rounds and needed a few extra holes to finish the tournament. SIX extra holes to be exact. The combination of soft course conditions and four par 5s led to record scoring.
Caves Valley’s official card has been significantly changed for the 2025 edition. The golf course will now play to a par 70 and has been lengthened to 7,601 yards! Had to have that extra yard… Five holes were significantly stretched, and holes two and 12 were changed from par 5s to 4s. Just to summarize the significance of the changes, took a quick look below.
- Par 3s: 2021 (average length 215 yards), 2025 (227 yards)
- Par 4s: 2021 (434 yards), 2025 (460 yards!!)
- Par 5s: 2021 (586 yards), 2025 (595 yards)
The field will be tested with nine par 4s over 465 yards. Officials have also narrowed the landing areas and raised the rough slightly. Seems as if the Caves Valley’s membership did not take kindly to having every player in the 69-man field finish under par in 2021. Switching the 17th hole from a 190-yard par 3 over water to a 245-yard shot is straight prison rules. Some will say it plays downhill, but really? Vegas has set the final score over/under at 17.5 under par. I believe this will play much like a PGA Championship from a scoring perspective. Should the turf remain dry, our winner will be in the mid-teens. If the forecast changes and we get wet, smash the under bet on a very low total.
The weather played a huge role last time, and our forecast looks much better for the 2025 version. The golf course has been dry as the mid-Atlantic/Baltimore region has not witnessed much rain through July and August. A couple of thunderstorms threatened yesterday, but as of sending this, there has been no precipitation. The thermometer has read over 90 degrees all week and will continue through Sunday. No break from the heat for these guys who trudged through TPC Swampwind. Much like Memphis, the wind will provide little relief as the predicted breeze is below 10 mph through all four rounds. From the grounds, I can report this about the course and field:
- Ted Scott is NOT caddying for Scottie Scheffler this week. Mike Cromie (Chris Kirk’s caddie) will be filling in for him while Ted is away handling a personal matter.
- Sepp Straka withdrew from the field, leaving 49 players in the BMW. Straka is fifth in FedEx Cup points and guaranteed a spot in the Tour Championship.
- Precision-Aire has been installed below the green surfaces. With dry conditions leading in and little chance for real substantial precipitation, the WGA should be able to create firm putting surfaces.
- The rough is slightly deeper than 2021, the fairways are slightly narrower and firmer, which will effectively have them play smaller.
- Players love the putting surfaces. Watching practice rounds, the roll is pure and should lead us down a similar scoring path that we witnessed in 2021.
The golf course has a Castle Pines look and feel to it. Minus the elevation factor, of course! The clubhouse sits atop a hill, and the field plays down into the valley and back up at the end of each nine. Comps such as Quail Hollow (Fazio), Augusta National, Muirfield Village, and Vallhalla all make sense. The Superintendent’s previous stop was MVGC. You get that feel around Caves Valley. It is a big golf course with a “length” aura. The holes are long, and the green complexes have been enhanced since 2021. Inviting the TOUR to your facility can be good and bad. The 2021 BMW showed CVGC’s membership what was possible. Now it is the Red Coats’ turn to fight back. These guys are good, so high teens will likely win, but from what I’m seeing, scores deep into the 20s under these conditions are not currently on the radar.
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BMW Championship 2025: TPC Southwind course overview
I love events where we lack a ton of course history. It forces everyone to look at the golf course and decide what it takes to win. Tom Fazio had an incredible piece of property to use for this design. Television cannot truly capture the challenge of this terrain, much like Augusta National. I’m not comparing the two, but whether it is Kapalua’s Plantation Course or Castle Pines last year, there are some serious elevation changes across this landscape.
With the added length and change in par, my first outright skill for CVGC is ball speed. This is a bomber’s ballpark. Can a player like JJ Spaun or Justin Rose compete at Caves? They sure can. Those two examples are both playing exceptional golf, but when the week ends, the top 15 on the leaderboard will be dominated by big-time drivers of the golf ball.
Seven of the top 10 players in 2021 were inside the top 10 for strokes gained off the tee. With firmer landing areas and the need for a little more accuracy, that trend may regress a touch, but the BMW loves drivers. I find myself writing this every year (Olympia Fields, Castle Pines), but they do love the saying “ultimate driving machine!” Look at the last top 10, it included: Bryson, Rory, DJ, Rahm, Sergio, Sam Burns, and Patrick Cantlay.
All of those guys can seriously send the golf ball. Walking the fairways, there are some areas where Google Maps is not going to do the current setup justice. This isn’t Oakmont, but it’s not as wide open as many online would have you think. By adding some bounce and making the fairways a little tighter, it again favors the SG:OTT guys. Don’t forget, strokes gained off the tee promotes length over accuracy.
The par 3 and par 5 strokes gained ranges have not changed since 2021, but the par 4 edge will be increased. Not only are there two more par 4s to play, but they are both converted par 5s. Each is well over 500 yards and will help differentiate the field. That’s where the Rory, Ludvig, Young, Gotterup crew will have a big advantage. Thirteen of the 14 driving holes meander to one side or the other off the tee. The ability to cut the corners (or carry bunkers), much like a Quail Hollow, will be another great scoring opportunity.
- Par 3: 200-225
- Par 4: 450-500
- Par 5: 550-600
The last edition would lead one to believe the putter is the most important club in the bag. Watching on-site, you see a real edge on the greens. These surfaces are so pure, much like the brand-new greens we saw at TPC Southwind. Players will make a bunch of birdie putts. They are fast, firm, and because of all the elevation changes, not incredibly difficult to read.
In talking to caddies and players, many are playing more slope than break. What I mean by that is when greens have a ton of bumps, swales, and plateaus, you play a ton of break. Small changes in the green surface force the ball to move. When green complexes sit on hillsides, you see the slope of the whole green causing the ball to move. With less little undulations, guys will make more putts, and they proved it in 2021.
Strokes gained pressure is a real thing. Impossible to quantify, you know it when you see Fleetwood fall from the lead late on a Sunday afternoon. Some pressure is being applied to those outside the top 30. Matt Fitzpatrick (40), Xander Schauffele (43), Jason Day (44), and Rickie Fowler (48) all need very good weeks to qualify for East Lake. Their mindset is to attack and not hold back. They may feel some pressure, but hit the gas and see what happens.
I’m more interested in the Ryder Cup question marks. Bethpage requires excellent driving and match-play putting. Two skills that will determine our champion at Caves Valley. You better believe the Captain and his support team will be watching all week. That is more pressure than Cam Young, Ben Griffin, or Chris Gotterup have ever faced in their careers. I think the pressure is palpable, and I’m looking at certain players who I believe will rise to the occasion.
- FedEx Cup Standings: 25. Im, 26. Gotterup, 27. Bridgeman, 28. Hovland, 29. Bhatia, 30. Glover, 31. Stevens, 32. Gerard, 33. Berger, 34. Fox, 35. Pendrith
- Ryder Cup Standings: 7. Thomas, 8. Morikawa 9. Griffn, 10. Bradley, 11. McNealy, 12. Novak, 13. Harman, 14. Young, 15. Cantlay, 16. Burns, 17. Clark, 18. Glover, 19. Berger, 20. Bhatia
The European side is set. A player like Viktor Hovland is only worried about making the Tour Championship. The same 12 from Rome are coming to New York to pull off the upset. Players hit 72% of their GIRs in 2021, but don’t let that lead you to believe approach play is not important. Seventy-two percent is well above the TOUR average, and at 5,200 sq/ft (on average), these aren’t large targets. The best 50 players from this year are playing. Many of them have plenty to push for.
With just two weeks left, I’m looking for great iron players in the 175-215 yard range. Who is great with their six, seven, and eight iron? Notice, I didn’t say good. To beat Scottie Scheffler, you must create 25+ birdie chances. Scheffler will probably have even more. Get closer off the tee and you’ll hit more eight and nine irons, but whatever the club is, we need players who are firing on all cylinders.
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