The Toronto Blue Jays face one of the most critical deadlines in franchise history in just a few days.
The team has earned playoff bids in two of the past three seasons largely thanks to homegrown superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But now that he’s in his final year of contract arbitration eligibility, with a massive long-term payday looming in free agency, he has set the start of spring training as a hard deadline for an extension offer from the Blue Jays.
If the two sides are unable to agree on an extension by February 18, when full-squad workouts begin, the Blue Jays might lose all hope of retaining Guerrero into the future. If he tests free agency, suitors like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and others could set an unmatchable price for the star.
As that deadline looms, the Blue Jays have drawn a hard line on the near-term future for Guerrero, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting that the team has refused to discuss dealing him away despite facing a final chance to lock him into an extension.
“Oh, and for those who think perhaps Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would become available if he can’t come to terms on a contract extension before his Feb. 18 deadline: The Blue Jays continue to insist to other executives that the slugger isn’t going anywhere,” per Passan. “There is a price for everyone, yes, but Guerrero’s would be exceptionally high.”
The Blue Jays might be best served with some more open mindedness around a trade. Guerrero could demand an extension in the $400 million range, which would mean locking in quite a lot for a first baseman, talented as he is.
If the Blue Jays feel like they won’t be able to extend Guerrero, they would be risking a lot by allowing him to reach free agency. Getting a hefty return in a preseason trade for the slugger would jumpstart a rebuild for the franchise.
Of course, the team could change its stance on their star player once the season gets underway. If Guerrero opens the campaign with more stellar production at the plate, the Blue Jays could still land a significant return for his services, even as a half-year rental, if a contending team grows desperate.
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