After a travel day off yesterday from the World Series, it is back on tonight for Game 3 between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers managed to tie the series up in Game 2, so now the series heads to Los Angeles tied at 1-1. Tyler Glasnow is pitching for the Dodgers, who has been fantastic in the playoffs so far, while Max Scherzer is pitching for the Blue Jays.
Scherzer is obviously not the same pitcher he was during the prime of his career, but he is still giving the Blue Jays solid innings in the playoffs, and the team trusts him to get through 4-5 innings even against a good Dodgers lineup.
Game 3 is set for first pitch around 8 p.m. ET, with Fox on the call. Below, we detail our favorite Blue Jays-Dodgers props. There are MLB betting bonuses available on Fanatics, DraftKings and FanDuel to lock these in.
Glasnow Limited in Innings Pitched Tonight
Glasnow has gone over this number in both of his postseason starts so far, but he might struggle to get through innings against the Blue Jays. To be clear, Glasnow is fantastic, but he is a heavy strikeout pitcher who relies on swings and misses and will pitch out of the zone a decent amount. So, this type of approach ends up leading to a relatively high pitch count.
He walked three batters in both of his playoff starts this postseason (his walks allowed prop is set at 1.5, with the over being a good look there as well). He managed to get through six and 5.2 innings in those two starts as he only gave up two and three hits, respectively, but the Blue Jays lineup is a different animal than the Phillies and even the Brewers.
They had the highest batting average against RHP of any team in the entire MLB, hitting .266, with the highest on-base % as well. They have been even better in the playoffs, hitting .294 with an on-base % of .352, both of which would have led the regular season by a mile. So, the guess here is that Glasnow walks 2-3 batters in this one, while the Blue Jays can manage more hits and longer at-bats than previous playoff opponents for Glasnow.
Guerrero Jr. Walks at Least Once
As mentioned above, as good as Glasnow is he also tends to have a higher walk rate than most star starting pitchers. His walk rate was 11.7% in the regular season and has jumped up to 14.8% in the playoffs. To put that in perspective, the qualified pitcher (meaning, pitched enough innings to qualify) had a walk rate of 11.8%, and the second-highest pitcher was at 10.8%.
So, this means that Glasnow would have had the second-highest walk rate in the MLB in the regular season, and his postseason walk rate would have put him with the highest number by far. That brings us to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has the highest walk rate against RHP on the team (12.8%), which was a top 20 walk rate in the regular season as well.
He was walked in Game 1 and was not in Game 2 but has walked four times in 17 at-bats against Glasnow in his career, with an absurd walk rate of 23.5%. If Glasnow does not end up walking him, it could easily be off the bullpen as well, as he has an even higher walk rate of 28.9% against this Dodgers bullpen in his career. It might seem like a random market, but Guerrero Jr. is walked at least once tonight.
Freeman Goes Yard After Solid Game 2
Freddie Freeman has yet to clear a fence in this World Series, but he is set up well to do so tonight after a fantastic Game 2. While that Game 2 did not feature a home run, it did feature two HardHits that were both considered barrels. One of them was 108.4 mph exit velocity and traveled 375 feet, while the other one was 103.4 mph EV and traveled 360 feet.
That is a good day overall, and those two barrels puts him in the series lead in terms of total barrels, as no other batter has more than one.
In terms of the pitching matchup, as good of a career as Scherzer has had, he has also been prone to giving up home runs this year. He allowed an absurd 2.45 HR/9 to left-handed hitters on the year, allowing an ISO rate of .250 and above against every pitch in his pitch-mix except for the changeup, which he only throws 18% of the time.
Freeman has also had a ton of success against this Blue Jays bullpen in the past (.266 ISO rate), making him a great bet to hit a home run tonight.
