The Toronto Blue Jays know it’s going to cost them a fortune to keep their biggest star. At this point, there are no more hometown discounts available.
After his monster 2024 season, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is set to hit free agency in just over nine months. He’ll only be 26 when he does so, and he expects to make a boatload of money.
Juan Soto’s new deal with the New York Mets, also signed at age 26, completely reset the market for young free-agent sluggers. The 15-year, $765 million deal Soto got likely will top Guerrero’s contract, but it still may have earned the latter some extra coin.
Just how much will it cost, though, if the Blue Jays hope to keep the face of their franchise?
On Monday, CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa estimated the cost of extensions for 10 young MLB stars, and based on a prediction that Guerrero would get signed through age 39, Axisa tabbed him for a whopping 13-year, $585 million deal.
“These days, stars get signed through age 39 (Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge) or 40 (Soto, Manny Machado). That’s the magic number. To sign Guerrero through age 39, it would be a 13-year deal starting in 2026,” Axisa wrote.
“Call it $45 million a year and that’s $585 million total. And given the leverage Vlad Jr. has over the Blue Jays, that could become 14 years at closer to $50 million per year real quick.”
The biggest advantage Guerrero has at his disposal is his age, which is what would allow the total for his extension to get so high over the course of more than a decade. Plus, a Soto-like bidding war would certainly help increase his odds of topping the $500 million mark.
None of this, of course, is good news for the Blue Jays’ wallets. But what’s preferable: saving some money and getting under the luxury tax, or ensuring you can field a competitive team with a recognizable star for a decade-plus to come?
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