Bo Bichette is back to normal.
After a nightmare 2024 season, Bichette is again leading the American League in hits for the Toronto Blue Jays.
He’s making last year look more and more like an outlier, and it’s going to be a very good thing for his wallet.
Bichette is slated to be a free agent this offseason, and he’s going to get a nine-figure deal.
The question will become just how high that dollar value can rise.
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MLB Trade Rumors writer Steve Adams thinks Bichette can get up to $200 million if he finishes this season well.
This is the full breakdown released by Adams on Saturday morning:
Bichette has shaken off a pedestrian start to the season and, more importantly, made last year’s lack of production in an injury-ruined campaign feel like a distant memory. He’s hitting .300/.341/.468 in 508 plate appearances overall, but that jumps to a stout .306/.347/.508 when looking at his past 380 plate appearances. Bichette’s power was M.I.A. for the season’s first five weeks or so. All 15 of Bichette’s home runs this season have come since May 3. He’s been on an otherworldly tear of late, hitting .404/.449/.633 over the past month.
He’s still not walking much (5.3%), but Bichette’s 14.8% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. He’s averaging 91 mph off the bat with a hearty 48.6% hard-hit rate. It’s still a swing-happy approach (hence the lack of walks), as evidenced by a 33.9% chase rate on balls of the plate. That’s about six percentage points higher than average but stands as the lowest mark of Bichette’s career. Even with those swings, however, Bichette’s contact rate is plus. That’s particularly true when Bichette zeroes in on balls over the plate; his 91.2% contact rate on balls in the strike zone ranks 19th in all of baseball.
Bichette has slowed down noticeably in recent seasons. He’s swiped just five bases this year, 20 short of his career-high 25 set back in 2021. It’s unlikely Bichette will ever return to those levels of thievery. His average sprint speed back in ’21 was 28 feet per second — faster than nearly four out of five big leaguers. This year, he’s averaging 26.2 ft/sec and sitting in just the 22nd percentile of MLB players, per Statcast.
Defense is going to be the biggest knock on Bichette in free agency. He’s never been a great defensive shortstop, and some teams will probably prefer him at second base from the jump. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-6) and Outs Above Average (-6) feel he’s been well below average with the glove this year.
Bichette can probably handle shortstop for another couple seasons, but it’s not likely that he’ll finish a long-term contract at the position. He’s not the same type of defender as well-compensated shortstops Willy Adames (seven years, $182MM), Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM), Javier Baez (six years, $140MM) and Trevor Story (six years, $140MM). However, he’s hitting the market earlier than any of those players did — ahead of his age-28 season. That extra year of his prime should allow Bichette, who’ll reject a qualifying offer, to land in the range of those other recent top-tier shortstops in free agency. If he sustains his absurd summer production (or anything close to it), he could push for $200MM or more.
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Adams lists Bichette as the No. 2 free agent available this upcoming offseason. The only player above him is outfielder Kyle Tucker, currently of the Cubs.
It’s also an incredible time for Bichette to be available positionally. There are no other shortstops in Adams’ top-10 free agents or even his honorable mention list.
That means that any team in need of a SS will be looking at Bichette.
The Blue Jays should definitely consider bringing him back. He aligns with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as two centerpieces for a bunch of years to come.
Vladdy already got paid, and although Toronto could’ve paid Bo before the season, his rough 2024 season probably made that a trickier process.
Instead, Bichette is hurtling toward free agency as the hitting machine he has always been. The money bag will soon follow.
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