The Friday MLB slate has everything you could ask for, with 15 games on the schedule. There are ample matchups to dive into to see where the value is. With that thought in mind, we go over the best MLB home run picks for today, Friday June 13.
Below, we take a deeper look at our three favorite home run picks. Find MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365 for the weekend.
Home Run Picks & MLB Odds for Friday
Place each of the following MLB picks separately or try to combine the markets to create a parlay.
Olsen Goes Long for the Braves (+300 via FanDuel)
The +300 odds are admittedly short for a home run, but for good reason when backing Olson. He has been hitting the ball very hard lately, and has a great matchup against Rockies pitcher German Marquez.
Olson leads the Braves in total barrels over the last week (4) and 14 days (6), while being up there in terms of number of HardHits in this timeframe as well. Over the last 30 days specifically against RHP, he has a barrel rate of 20.4%, which, once again, leads the Braves.
The biggest issue for Olson with hitting home runs has been his inability to hit the ball in the air, but even that has changed recently with a ground-ball rate below 40%. For Matt Olson, that is pretty good.
Then, looking at the pitching matchup presents a great opportunity for Olson. Marzues has allowed a barrel rate of 12.7% and a HardHit rate of 65.5% over the last 30 days to LHH, all with a low strikeout rate of 17.3%.
If Olson does not manage to get one off Marquez, he could also get one off the Rockies bullpen, which has allowed an ISO rate of .216 to LHH over the last month.
Raleigh Leads MLB with another Homer (+340 via DraftKings)
Our second play is backing another player with relatively short odds, but for Raleigh +340 is not completely unreasonable. Over the last week he has been in the +200s, so there is some value even at +340.
He has been red hot recently, with nine home runs hit over his last 14 games, and he has shown no signs of slowing down. His fly-ball rate above 60% is the biggest advantage he has and why he has been such a good home run hitter, along with his high exit velocity logs as well.
Gavin Williams is pitching for the Reds, who is not a horrible pitcher but nobody to fear either. On the year, Williams has allowed a barrel rate of 12.7% against LHH, which goes up to 19% over the last 30 days. He also allows a high fly-ball rate to lefties, which is perfect for Cal Raleigh, who’s specialty is hitting the ball in the air.
Williams does have a relatively high strikeout rate against LHH, but that is something we can stomach since lefties also hit him hard. Basically, it is either a strikeout or a barrel, which generally works out over the long run.
Trout Ends Streak with HR on Friday (+400 via bet365)
Our third and final home run pick of the evening is backing Trout, who has not hit a home run in his last eight games, but that does not mean he is cold at the plate either. In this eight game stretch, he has 16 total HardHits (HardHit rate of 76.2%), and a barrel rate of 14%. That barrel rate will not put him in the hall of fame, of course, but it is not horrible either.
He is going up against Charlie Morton of the Orioles, who has been hit hard on the year. His HR/9 on the year is 1.61, along with a bad home run to fly-ball ratio of 16.4%. He is also slightly worse against righties, with a HR/9 of 1.73 against RHH.
Trout, meanwhile, is actually better against right-handed pitching despite the fact that he is a righty himself. He has hit 10 home runs on the year, all 10 of which have come against RHP.
Morton is a soft thrower, in that he does not throw really any heat, but, luckily, Trout crushes the soft stuff, especially the curveball, which is the pitch that Morton throws to RHH the most often.
Look for Trouts homer-less streak to end tonight.
