Two teams level on points at the top of the La Liga table clash in a critical December title tilt as Barcelona host Atletico Madrid on Saturday.
Barcelona sit first with a better goal differential, but second-place Atleti have a game in hand, as do Real Madrid in third who are a single point behind the top two. Hansi Flick has seen a relatively comfortable lead evaporate thanks to just one win in their last five league games.
Atleti, meanwhile, are in a blistering run of form having won 11 straight games across all competitions since a Copa del Rey victory on Halloween.
It represents the best opportunity in a while for Atletico to end an awful run of results against today’s opponents, having lost five straight to Barcelona including the last four without scoring a single goal.
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Atletico Madrid (+280 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid
The juxtaposition of Atletico Madrid’s recent run of results against their head-to-head form against Barcelona is stark. They can do no wrong over the last two months, but have done little right against today’s opponents in recent memory.
Thankfully for Atleti, the former matters far more than the latter. When you add in Barcelona’s recent form into the mix, there’s good value on the team in better form at nearly 3/1 odds. The suffocating defense which has long been a hallmark of Diego Simeone’s side is back to its best, while their traditional road struggles have gone away.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Barcelona win | -115 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Atletico Madrid win | +280 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -185 N: +130 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -175 U: +125 |
| Barcelona -0.5 goals |
-125 |
| Atletico Madrid +0.5 goals |
-115 |
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid match facts
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium (Barcelona, Spain)
- Referee: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Last meeting: Atletico Madrid 0-3 Barcelona (Mar. 17, 2024 | La Liga)
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid best bet
- Pick: Barcelona under 1.5 total goals
- Odds: +105 (BetMGM)
Plus odds on Barcelona to struggle up front against an in-form Atletico Madrid defense is an early Christmas gift.
Atletico Madrid have not conceded over 1.0 xG in any of their last six La Liga games, all wins, holding Las Palmas, Mallorca, Alaves, Real Valladolid, Sevilla, and Getafe to a total of four goals on 3.08 xG. While this match is a significant step up in opposition from that recent run of games, Barcelona are also in the midst of a poor attacking stretch thanks in part to the injury absence of Lamine Yamal.
Outside of their 5-1 explosion against Mallorca, their only win amongst their last five league games, Barcelona have bagged five goals over the other four matches. While that’s not exactly a drought, it’s a far cry from Barcelona’s typical attacking haul which has seen them score 50 goals this season, 13 more than anyone else. They were shut out by 15th-placed Leganes last time out despite 2.77 xG, but were also blanked by Real Sociedad a month ago on just 0.51 xG, indicating there are kinks in the works on multiple levels.
Even as Atletico Madrid have struggled against Barcelona in recent meetings, it’s been the Atleti attack that has faltered, not their defense, with Barca scoring just one goal in three of the last four meetings.
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid prop bet
Just like his side Atletico Madrid, Antoine Griezmann has had awful luck against today’s opponents, securing just one measily goal contribution in his last 15 league appearances for Atleti against Barcelona, an assist back in 2018. That’s an astonishingly poor record for such a brilliant player.
Today’s Barcelona defense barely resembles the one which has repeatedly smothered one of the world’s most electric forwards. Their 23.68 xG conceded is good for 11th in the league, a far cry from where they usually rank in that category. It has led to 20 goals conceded in 18 matches, including eight in their last five games.
Combine that with Griezmann’s recent tear — four goals in his last four league games on nine shots worth 1.94 xG — and it means he is more than due for a big moment against Barcelona. Even considering he came up empty with no shots or key passes last time out in the muted win over Getafe, the last time he was blanked (in a 1-0 win at Mallorca to begin this hot streak), he came back and carved Alaves to pieces.
- Pick: Rodrigo de Paul to be shown a card
- Odds: +240 on FanDuel
When researching this selection, I came across one of the most outrageous statistics I have seen this season — Rodrigo de Paul has four yellow cards in La Liga play this year……..on just seven fouls. That’s right, this entire season, in 802 minutes, one of the most hard-nosed midfielders in the world has been whistled just seven times, and drawn a booking on four of those occasions.
Furthermore, four of those fouls came in their last match, a 1-0 win against Getafe, one of which drew a booking.
Anyways, I just wanted to share that complete oddity. It has little bearing on this pick — de Paul is well known as an enforcer in midfield, and not only has he been shown four yellows on the year so far, he’s also been booked twice in his last five appearances against Barcelona. This is good value for a player who will be tasked with handling the Barcelona midfield which includes Marc Casado and Pedri who have combined to win over 40 fouls this year, as well as Dani Olmo who is shifty himself, especially on the counter.
