In this betting preview:
Ludvig looked amazing last week, and then he got the flu. Picking outrights can feel like a near impossible task at times, but with a couple very nice Lee Hodges hits and a perfect 4-0 H2H card on Sunday we did more than survive the wild week that was Torrey Pines. We also learned quite a bit as we now know the TOUR is going back to Torrey for the Genesis Invitational. Keep those Famers’ notes close as we will reopen that chapter in a couple weeks when we return.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am received a much needed lift in 2024. A tired TOUR event skipped by so many due to six-hour pro-am rounds and traveling from course to course, was injected by a $20 million purse and massive cut to the field size. That’s the only cut you’ll see this week as with signature status, this field of 80 elite players (45 in the top 50 OWGR) have four days to win the title. I didn’t say four guaranteed days as last year this was a 54-hole event. Hurricane conditions hit the Monterey peninsula on Sunday and cancelled the final round. Wyndham Clark’s Saturday course record on Pebble Beach Golf Links gave him the lead and one he would not give up on the final day.
This week also marks the return of a couple key PGA TOUR players; Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth. Spieth had wrist surgery in September and Scheffler was sidelined by a holiday hand accident. Both are back and looking for a quick start to their 2025 campaign.
This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners, finishing positions, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025 expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Collin Morikawa (+1400 on FanDuel)
We would all like to thank Scottie Scheffler for showing up this week. In doing so, he has increased the betting lines of every other player. Collin Morikawa may have been one of the favorites around +1000 if not for Scheffler. Morikawa makes sense for a couple of reasons. First, his accuracy off the tee and on approach are why his odds are so low. Second, Collin is from California and played college golf in the Bay region. He can putt this Northern California Poa. Last, more than anyone near the top, he’s absolutely due for a win.
Best bet to place in the top 20: Tom Kim (+200 on BetMGM)
Tom Kim is an excellent short course player. By winning at Wyndham, Kim showed his ability to go low on a classic layout. By winning TWICE at the Shriners in Vegas, Tom showed us he can just go low. The MVP of Monday night’s TGL match is striking his ball and playing with confidence. It doesn’t take much to fire him up, and I believe his exuberance is a perfect fit for a signature win. Kim came close at the Travelers on a similar test at TPC Highlands, and will certainly be a big part of this winner conversation come Sunday.
Best head-to-head bet: Wyndham Clark over Jordan Spieth (-125 on bet365)
Jordan Spieth had wrist surgery in September. He hasn’t played a competitive round since August, and I saw him testing various drivers here at the AT&T in his practice rounds. Spieth’s record here is impressive, but I’m going to take the defending champion Wyndham Clark instead. Clark can certainly get it done here and with plenty of recent reps my pick for this 72-hole match.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025 live odds to win
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1200 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2200 |
| Sungjae Im | +2500 |
| Jason Day | +3300 |
| Sam Burns | +3300 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3300 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4000 |
| Corey Conners | +4500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +4500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +5000 |
| Sepp Straka | +5000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +5000 |
| Will Zalatoris | +5000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +5000 |
| Beau Hossler | +5500 |
| Russell Henley | +5500 |
| Shane Lowry | +5500 |
| Tony Finau | +5500 |
| Adam Scott | +6000 |
| Max Greyserman | +6000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +6600 |
| Harris English | +6600 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +6600 |
| Sahith Theegala | +6600 |
| Thomas Detry | +6600 |
| Tom Hoge | +6600 |
| Tom Kim | +6600 |
| Byeong Hun An | +6600 |
| Denny McCarthy | +6600 |
| J.J. Spaun | +6600 |
| J.T. Poston | +6600 |
| Nick Taylor | +6600 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | +6600 |
| Cam Davis | +8000 |
| Cameron Young | +8000 |
| Harry Hall | +8000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +8000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +8000 |
| Max Homa | +8000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +8000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +8000 |
| Davis Thompson | +9000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +9000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +9000 |
Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025: Betting preview
We have been fooled into thinking these are purely positional golf courses from watching the middle-tier fields compete across these courses for the past 20+ years. Watching last year on-site was a completely different experience than Tom Hoge steering his way around the Monterey Peninsula. Look at that leaderboard from a year ago. Wyndham Clark, Thomas Detry, Ludvig Åberg, and Scottie Scheffler are all great SG:OTT guys, and they used driver everywhere. These guys didn’t lay-up OTT unless they absolutely had to. It was full throttle all week and I expect to see a similar approach with all of the preparation I have seen on the practice tee.
With these firm and fast conditions, most players will end up getting even closer to the green than usual. The annual wedge fest continues across both courses as 14 of the 20 par 4s measure under 430 yards. Trajectory and spin control are the two biggest keys and a major reason why players like Jordan Spieth are always in contention here. If you have ever seen Spieth hit wedges in competition then you know what I’m talking about. The green surfaces on both of these courses are very small. Pebble Beach owns the smallest ones you will see on TOUR.
Precision on approach is the first factor one can focus on for contending. Looking at the numbers for approach acumen over the past 10 years are staggering. The winners create so many great birdie chances with their scoring weapons. When I look at the course conditions and compare the forecast, you are going to need a number of chances. The average winning score over the last decade through all sorts of weather is still 19 under par. That’s with all of the pro-am footprints on the greens and distractions; these guys are good.
Building a game plan to win, I want another Wyndham, Scottie, or Ludvig. The overall length of the course will bring a bigger field into play, but in the end taking advantage of the par 5 scoring by reaching them in two and separating on the hardest par 4s is the path to victory. Scoring averages on Spyglass are also an area I considered. I realize it is just one round, but AT&T leaderboards are built around players who score at Spyglass. The amount of elevation changes and elements really force the field to play well if you are going low away from Pebble.
Since the greens are so small (firm!) and we are exposed to the ocean, bogey avoidance, scrambling, and short game are all very important considerations. A player’s ability to turn a round of 70 into 67 is vital. Spyglass has 62 perfectly placed bunkers, and Pebble Beach has 116! Scrambling savvy by the best in the world is not always a given. Where power was a separating skill last week, short game will set you apart on these two tracks. Yes, I mentioned ball speed earlier, but if you can add a little greenside savvy to your credentials, you’ll climb the leaderboard here.
My final skill to touch upon is putting. Great putters excel at Pebble Beach. The greens are so small that if you are hitting them routinely you will have legitimate birdie chances. Both courses are overseeded with Poa Annua. The last five winners have gained an average of five strokes on the field with their flatstick. I thought with the dry conditions down in San Diego, the guys would make more putts especially from close range. Turns out, that wasn’t the case and the Poa seed heads popping is still a problem even for the world’s best players. Proven west coast players and Poa aficionados are my focus.
The par ranges this week only cover Pebble Beach Golf Links. I’m happy to report, we will finally get Shotlink data for Spyglass Hill GL this year! Unfortunately, the past analytic data does not currently factor in SHGL. Here’s the breakdown for Pebble Beach:
- Par 3: 175-200
- Par 4: 400-450
- Par 5: 500-550
I’ll be on-site for four of the next five weeks. We’ve been contending and not closing so far in 2025. It’s time to change that trend on the road. If you didn’t see the Golf Pro Betting Show yesterday, then make sure you check it out. Matt and I covered all of this and more. Here’s the link – GPBS. If you have any specific questions, you can always email or DM me. Our community pursuit of winning is my only priority and we are going to get it done this week!
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Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025: Course and conditions
With changes to the purse came a couple of tweaks to the AT&T format. Eighty players will compete on Thursday and Friday across two courses with their pro-am partners. Starting Saturday, the amateurs are out and just the signature players will play 36-holes over the weekend. The PGA TOUR will use Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Links for the tournament. Here are the most important facts about each venue:
- Pebble Beach GL (3 rounds)
- Pebble Beach is the third shortest course on TOUR, a par 72 that measures 6,972 yards.
- The average green size at PBGL is 3,500 sq/ft, the smallest on TOUR. They are covered in Poa Annua grass.
- Every Pebble Beach winner since 2006, has earned a top 21 finish the year prior.
- Spyglass Hill GL (1 round)
- Spyglass Hill is slightly longer at 7,041 yards and is also a par 72.
- The greens at Spyglass are a little bigger at 5,000 sq/ft, and they are also covered in Poa Annua.
- The first six holes at Spyglass go out to the ocean, and the remaining holes are framed by the Monterey woods.
This is one of those weeks where it’s a huge advantage being on-site. Course conditions can change in the blink of an eye, and we will be covering the event all week from a pre and live betting perspective. My first mission on property was to track down the two biggest question marks.
- Scottie Scheffler played a practice round on PBGL yesterday. As I mentioned on the Golf Pro Betting Show based upon his play, I wouldn’t have been able to tell he was hurt. Scheffler may be a little rusty around the greens, but considering he gets four guaranteed rounds, he’ll be in the mix come Sunday. Watch Scottie’s betting line — if it goes over +1000, bet it. He’s way too good to let past 10-1 and not make a winning wager unless he’s 10 back on Sunday with three to play.
- Jordan Spieth appears fine from the wrist surgery. When I saw him, he was testing three different drivers (and I didn’t see a clear favorite). Unlike Scheffler, Spieth had his wrist repaired. I’d look other places than Jordan this week even with his history at Pebble Beach.
I was also curious to see how the TGL guys were going to handle the cross-continent commute. The entire Boston Common Golf team is competing this week along with Tom Kim from Jupiter Links. Walking the practice areas, I get the feeling all of these guys are feeling the external pressures of what the PGA TOUR is facing right now. There’s a very business-like vibe taking place. With that in mind, I’m leaning toward the most serious of contenders in the field, being anxious is not for everyone and I believe certain players will thrive in this environment.
In keeping with the “environment” theme, we have February weather in Monterey. Hey PGA TOUR, it’s winter and although this place is along the water, we won’t see a high temperature over 55 degrees this week. Thank God it’s a small field event and no players are teeing off at 6:40 am PT. The forecast calls for cool temperatures and a chance of precipitation over the weekend. The wind is always a factor at Pebble Beach, and we saw what it can do to a betting card or lineup last weekend at Torrey Pines.
Both courses are in immaculate condition. California has not received any rain from San Diego to San Francisco. Pebble Beach and Spyglass are both firm and playing fast. Players will be attacking the front edges of greens and chipping when they bounce off. These are small targets by TOUR standards. There’s going to be a bunch of wild bounces based upon the practice rounds I have seen. The surface is hard which doesn’t make the courses any easier.
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