With their involvement in the Premier League title race considered a longshot, Arsenal hope to capitalise on other opportunities for silverware as they host Newcastle in the first leg of their EFL Cup semifinal matchup.
The second-place Gunners are six points back of leaders Liverpool in the league standings having played an extra game, so while the title charge is far from over, it’s also not entirely under their control.
What is entirely in their own grasp is their Carabao Cup fate, having knocked off Bolton, Preston, and Crystal Palace to reach this juncture. They have two semifinal legs against Newcastle to navigate before potentially reaching the final at Wembley for the first time since 2018, seeking their first League Cup title since 1993.
Newcastle, meanwhile, are hoping to reach their second final in the last three years while eyeing a first-ever League Cup crown. The Magpies are in exceptional form, having shaken off a worrying four-match unbeaten run to win their last six in a row.
Alexander Isak has scored in seven straight Premier League matches, and he scored in the last meeting between these clubs as well, a 1-0 Newcastle victory back in early November which serves as one of just two Gunners’ defeats this season in league play.
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Arsenal vs. Newcastle prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Newcastle (+340 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Newcastle
Newcastle played their November league meeting inch-perfect, holding Arsenal to a single shot on target from 10 efforts worth 1.05 xG while simultaneously stealing a goal on their only real chance of the match.
So far this season, nobody has been able to produce a performance like that against the Gunners at the Emirates, where Arsenal have been utterly perfect all season long. Yet if there’s any time for it to happen, it would come now — in a Cup match with a few Arsenal rotations and a couple important injury absences.
The Gunners have suffered greatly without Bukayo Saka up front. They have collected just 32 shots worth 3.77 xG from their last three Premier League games. Which that may not sound terribly alarming, these three fixtures came against defensively porous sides Ipswich, Brentford, and Brighton.
With Saka sidelined, they could also be missing Kai Havertz, Martin Odegaard, and Ethan Nwaneri up front. Newcastle are in great form, and Arsenal have key players missing against a manager in Eddie Howe who has done well tactically to make life difficult for Mikel Arteta more than once.
| BetMGM (USA) |
|
| Arsenal win | -135 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Newcastle win | +340 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -160 N: +115 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -165 U: +115 |
| Arsenal -0.5 goals |
-145 |
| Newcastle +0.5 goals |
+105 |
Arsenal vs. Newcastle match facts
- Date: Tuesday, January 7, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
- Referee: Craig Pawson
- Last meeting: Newcastle 1-0 Arsenal (Nov. 2, 2024 | Premier League)
MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of Arsenal vs. Newcastle
Arsenal vs. Newcastle best bet
While the Arsenal back line has been immense this season, especially at home, there are a few reasons why this game could end up with a more exciting goal tally.
Newcastle are in sensational form, and it would be ludicrous for Eddie Howe to sit scorching hot striker Alexander Isak now. Since being shut out in both matches against Arsenal in 2023, Newcastle have scored in three straight games against the Gunners.
Additionally, it’s possible that even in a semifinal, Mikel Arteta rests one of his regular defenders to give Jakob Kiwior a start. The Poland international represents a massive step down from either Gabriel or William Saliba, as proven by his struggles against Crystal Palace in the quarterfinal.
Even if the two regulars start at the back for Arsenal, the Gunners have seemingly been punished for every little mistake at the back, and it stands to reason that they will have to outscore Newcastle to win this one.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle prop bet
Of all Arsenal players with over 300 Premier League minutes, Mikel Merino has the lowest minutes-per-foul mark, being whistled for an infringement once every 37 minutes of play.
The Gunners will have to deal with a venomous Newcastle counter-attack with Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak providing the most danger. Merino was booked in the November league meeting between these clubs, committing two fouls in his 61 minutes of action, and he could be in a position to be shown another caution.
