Arch Manning flashed plenty when playing dual-threat quarterback as a fill-in freshman for NFL Draft pick Quinn Ewers in 2024. Manning’s transition to Texas’ full-time starting QB as a redshirt sophomore in 2025, however, has been a little bumpy.
The can’t-miss prospect from New Orleans — the nephew of No. 1 overall QB picks Peyton (1998) and Eli Manning (2004) — is still trending to go high whenever he enters the draft, anywhere from spring 2026 to 2028.
Manning has gone from stellar to more well above average with his overall passing and running for the Longhorns. He’s been hurt by challenges in the supporting cast at the offensive line and receiving corps, too, unlike last season. With Texas having a disappointing 3-2 season in the SEC with Manning, here’s looking at what his near future might look like:
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Will Arch Manning go to the NFL in 2026?
Given the down individual play from Manning and the struggling nature of Steve Sarkisian’s program in 2025, there’s a good chance Arch follows through on his family’s expectations — from Peyton, Ell, father Cooper and namesake grandfather Archie — and returns for a second starting in Austin.
Consider in a different time, both Peyton (1997 at Tennessee) and Eli (2003 at Ole Miss) stayed in school through their senior seasons. In the world of NIL, there’s even more reason to be patient about making the jump to the NFL, especially in Arch Manning’s case when he could use some real polish on his game.
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How have Arch Manning’s 2025 stats impacted his draft stock?
Contrary to popular belief, there hasn’t been a huge dropoff in Manning’s play. There are a little more reasonable with 1,151 passing yards, 11 TDs and 5 INTs through five games. He’s struggling a bit with accuracy, with the completion percentage dropping to 60.0. But he’s also averaging a robust 8.5 yards per passing attempt.
Manning’s running has been a little less efficient, but he’s averaging 32 rushing yards per game and has scored five TDs on the ground. The bottom line, there isn’t much there in the Longhorns games to say Manning should be downgraded from top draft stock. The only question is, can he hold off upstart draft prospect quarterbacks such as Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza to remain the top pick, whether it’s next year or beyond?
Arch Manning NFL Draft projection 2026
If the NFL Draft were set for Week 6, the 0-5 Jets would have the first crack at Manning, to get him to New York a la uncle Eli Manning with the Giants. Justin Fields has played OK, but not at a level to say he can keep the job over a prospect as pedigreed as Arch Manning.
The Browns (1-4) have a good chance to lock into him early should Manning declare for 2026 after they see that rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders don’t provide the franchise QB answer.
The Raiders (1-4) are No. 3 and if passed by the Jets and Browns, Manning would be a lock to go there for Tom Brady, Pete Carroll and (maybe still) Chip Kelly). At No. 4, the Saints (1-4) are sentimental hometown favorites to land Manning for rookie coach Kellen Moore. Based on the teams picking, Arch Manning wouldn’t drop out of the top five overall selections.
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Arch Manning NFL Draft projection 2027
Should the Jets, Browns, Raiders or Saints decide to table QB again at the start of the 2026 season, then they would all carry over and be in play for Arch Manning in ’27. It’s unlikely that Manning would stay all the way through his senior season and start three years for Texas.
The Falcons, should Michael Penix Jr. flame out, will move near the top. The Panthers are also look at a make-or-break time for Bryce Young. The Cardinals may still consider rebooting without Kyler Murray after one more year.
Manning might have some competition for top QB status in the draft from Mendoza, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and others in ’26. He will be better position to be a surefire No. 1 overall pick in ’27 should he return to school for one more season.
