Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning didn’t choose to be the center of the college football universe. He didn’t choose to be a Manning, he didn’t choose to be a preseason Heisman favorite and he certainly didn’t choose to be called “college football’s first flop.”
But life isn’t fair, and Manning is destined to find himself in the spotlight.
We all know how his season started. Throttled by an elite Ohio State defense, Manning crumbled under the brightest lights of his collegiate career. Over the next few weeks, against lesser competition, he didn’t look much better.
A half-season later, things have changed. Manning is playing better, Texas has remained relevant and a once-brutal collapse has turned into a story of overcoming adversity.
However, his redshirt sophomore journey took another turn in Week 9.
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Arch Manning hit a speed bump
Manning has remained unsteady, but his best games of the season came when the Longhorns needed him most.
In the Red River Rivalry, Manning captained the ship for an offense that outlasted Oklahoma’s, keeping the ball out of harm’s way and making plays with his legs.
The following and prior weeks didn’t go as well, stumbling against Florida and Kentucky. However, in Week 9, Mississippi State had Texas’s back against the wall, holding two 17-point leads.
Manning battled back with some of his best ball of the season. With the help of special teams plays and backup quarterback Matthew Caldwell, Texas won, 45-38, avoiding disaster and keeping its College Football Playoff hopes alive.
It was gutsy and impressive, but Manning’s performance was cut short by a concussion, suffered in the open field during overtime. He’s officially in concussion protocol, putting his Week 10 (vs. Vanderbilt) in doubt.
Manning threw for 346 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against the Bulldogs. He might not get the chance for an encore on Saturday.
Looks like Arch Manning has rediscovered No. 1 pick form
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— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) October 28, 2025
As for his NFL Draft stock, Manning’s progress has been questionable. Of course, concussions impact players differently, and getting him healthy is paramount. Subsequently, he may run out of room to improve his stock enough to declare in 2026.
There are only four games left on Texas’s schedule, including as many conference games and three ranked matchups. If the Longhorns fall short, they may be playing in a non-playoff bowl game, too. Missing time means missing opportunities to put a poor September behind him.
To his credit, Manning’s season has made him look more like a victim than the culprit for Texas’s offensive struggles. His offensive line has played poorly, his receivers have underperformed and injuries have struck the running back room. He hasn’t been perfect; perhaps he hasn’t been far above-average. But he’s also playing on Heisman difficulty with an SEC schedule taking aim at this supporting cast.
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Manning has flashed clutch, high-level throws in several weeks. He’s grown a bit more consistent on a down-to-down basis, too. After his stock cratered early in the year, he’s likely made enough plays to be considered a Day 2 prospect.
In fairness, there’s little certainty about Manning’s stock. I don’t think he’d be a first-round pick if the draft were tomorrow, despite having him as my preseason QB1. He’s fallen down boards; many would justifiably consider him a Day 3 project. A muddy quarterback class only clouds that evaluation.
Manning will most likely return to school, honing his development and raking in NIL money while competing for a championship and buying more chances to boost his stock. However, the flashes are encouraging enough to mark this season as a step forward, rather than a failure.
We’ll know more about Manning — and the context surrounding his looming decision — in the coming weeks. With big games down the stretch, there’s a long enough runway for Manning to play himself back into the Round 1 conversation. His ill-timed injury, though, could push things back.
Manning’s story isn’t close to over, and as he stacks encouraging moments in a suboptimal season, he’s keeping his options open. It’s worth remaining open-minded to Manning’s next steps, whichever direction they may be.
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