Saturday brings another solid 15-game MLB slate, with plenty of home run picks to target. With that said, let’s dive into the best MLB HR props for today, June 14th
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Saturday
These are our three favorite home run picks for Saturday. Try making these bets with bonuses on DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. Each app has additional MLB betting bonuses.
Acuna Jr. Goes Long for the Braves
For our first play, we are backing Acuna Jr, who continues to destroy the baseball since he has come back from injury.
Yesterday alone he had three hits above 100+ MPH EV, two of which were put in the air with a decent launch angle. That includes the hardest hit of the game at 112.7 MPH EV, and another double that was 108.4 MPH off the bat. Acuna Jr really crushes four-seam fastballs specifically, with a ridiculous 40%-barrel rate, 80% HardHit rate, all with a low ground-ball rate of 20% against the four-seamer from RHP.
The reason the numbers against the four-seamer are relevant is due to the pitching matchup against Chase Dollander, who throws the four-seamer almost 60% of the time. In general, Dollander has allowed a home run every 16 at-bats over the last five weeks, which goes up to every 13 at-bats against RHH specifically.
Three of the home runs have been hit off his 4-seam FB, but his cutter also gets hit hard, which is another pitch that Acuna has crushed since coming back from injury with a 33% barrel rate and 66.7% HardHit rate.
Kepler Stays Hot for the Phillies
Kepler has also been swinging a hot bat recently, and he should be able to smoke the starting pitcher he is facing in Bowden Francis, who is a home run machine.
Francis has allowed six home runs to lefties in his last five starts, allowing a home run every nine at-bats, which is a truly terrible number. He has a couple of pitches that get sent to the moon, but the biggest one is his four-seam fastball, which he throws 56% of the time to lefties.
Kepler, surprisingly, has the best numbers on the Phillies against 4-seamers from RHP. Highest barrel rate (27.7%), second-highest HardHit rate (63.8%), highest fly-ball rate (46.8%) and the best ISO rate as well (.317). Those numbers have only gotten better over the last 30 days, so look for Kepler to clear a fence tonight.
Value in Taking Kirk to Launch a HR
For our third and final home run prediction of the day, let’s go with one of the longshot variety backing Kirk at a nice price of +900 odds. Kirk has been hitting the ball among the hardest in the MLB recently, with 18 hits above 100+ EV in his last 10 games, which leads the MLB. There are three batters tied with 17, but Kirk is the only one with 18.
He has also hit two home runs in this stretch, both of which came in his last five games and were also both hit off a sinker. Cristopher Sanchez is pitching for the Phillies, who is admittedly a good pitcher, but he has given up some power recently. He has allowed three home runs in his last 5 starts, and those three were all hit by righties. That is admittedly not as bad as the previous two pitchers mentioned, but also nothing to be completely scared of.
Sanchez is a sinker thrower, but Kirk can hit sinkers. As mentioned earlier, both home runs he has hit in this stretch have been hit off sinkers, and he has a 12.5%-barrel rate and 75% HardHit rate against sinkers from LHP. The other home run pitch for Sanchez is the slider, which Kirk also has decent numbers against with a 12.50 %-barrel rate and 62.5% HardHit rate. For the +900 price, this is worth a sprinkle.
