When it comes to MLB betting picks, sometimes you’re the hammer, and sometimes you’re the nail. An elite win rate is in the 60% range and while we were exceeding that figure routinely over the last six weeks, regression is starting to rear its ugly head.
We posted yet another 1-2 MLB player props card yesterday to run our weekly total to 5-10. With only two slates left it’s unlikely we’re going to get back into the black this week, but the baseball season is a marathon not a sprint, and there’s still 4+ months more of action to look forward to.
Despite the lackluster week, we will not be deterred. We’re back in the player prop streets today with a couple more wagers, starting with a fade of Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. Try making these selections with MLB betting bonuses on bet365 Sportsbook.
MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Matthew Boyd Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150 at Bet365)
The 34-year-old currently has a strikeout prop of 6.5 K’s at Bet365, which is way too high. Yes, the juice is shaded to the under, but not enough to discourage us from firing.
Boyd enters play with a 10.7% swing and miss rate, and a 14.4% called strike mark. Both of those numbers are far lower than what an elite arm boasts, because let’s face it, Boyd is not a big-time strikeout producer.
His K rate sits at only 8.44, his lowest mark since 2018. That’s translated into just a 22% strikeout rate, one of the lowest he’s had over his MLB tenure. Then there’s his game log. Boyd is fresh off six innings of work where he didn’t produce a single strikeout. He’s gone under 6.5 K’s in nine starts this season, including the only time when he faced today’s opponent the Pirates.
There’s no doubt that Pittsburgh is one of the most favorable matchups for enemy pitchers, however Boyd barely touches 93 mph with his fastball, while his sinker, slider, and curveball all grade out as negative pitches.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Willi Castro Over 0.5 Hits (-130 at Bet365)
Boyd might not be an uber talent, but Houston’s Hunter Brown certainly is. The Astros right-hander ranks inside the top 10 in most pitching categories but has struggled over his career against today’s opponent Minnesota. Brown has yielded a .298/.322/.417 slash line to Twins batters over an 84 at-bat sample size, with no player having more success than Willi Castro.
Minnesota’s second baseman is 7-for-11 all-time against Brown and is currently in his best form of the season. Castro is slashing .435/.480/.636 over the last seven days, with 10 hits in 23 at-bats. He enters play riding a five-game hitting streak and has five multi-hit efforts in June alone.
Castro is -130 to keep his hitting streak alive today. And given his history versus Brown and his recent production, that’s a bet we must make.
